In extreme terms, our current understanding is that we should focus solely on the price of crude oil at this stage.
Regarding the near-term outlook for the Nikkei Stock Average,75the main scenario is that it will move within a zone bounded by the 12-day moving average (as of the current day) of 52,936.79 yen and the 25-day moving average of 56,208.62 yen.12日現在52936.79円)~25日移動平均線(同56208.62円)に挟まれたゾーンで推移する展開がメインシナリオです。原油価格がここから急騰、若しくは高止まりなら「下振れ」、急落なら「上振れ」を見込んでいます。極端に言えば、現在は、原油価格だけに注視するべき局面との認識です。
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