What is the result of the scenario for everyone's favorite USD/JPY on 20190321 (Thu)?【How to continue wagering advantageously】

Hello!

I’m Takashi, a former accountant, psychological counselor, and trader.

Free Scenario! ⇒20190321 (Thu) USD/JPY Short-Term Scenario

I thought it was our first free scenario? But last year we did it for free the entire time.

This is how the advance scenario looked.

In reality, this is how it moved.

Regarding the second line area, it did dip a bit, but you can’t enter.

If you break the line, enter, I don’t basically recommend breaking in for the entry.

Then it rose, the line ① is effective, but I wasn’t watching because I was asleep.

It’s a subtle point whether to enter here.

On the members’ blog,“Basic Trading Rules”is posted.

When you compare with those rules, you wouldn’t enter here.

As a result, it was a no-trade.

I had recorded it, but it was a video of watching only, no trades.

Unlike this time, where I drew a scenario but it may not move exactly as drawn, sometimes it becomes a no-trade; however, you only need to do what you can see and what you planned in advance.

Looking at what you couldn’t take and thinking, “where could I have entered to take it?” is not correct, you know.

I think this is a predictive approach.

Only bet when you know the favorable moves or patternsfor yourself.

Like poker, only bet when it’s advantageous for you, I suppose.

There is a method called counting, where you count the number of dealt cards, and only when the remaining face-down cards are favorable do you take a decisive bet—this is a guaranteed-win method.

It doesn’t guarantee a win in one round, it goes up and down, but when you have many favorable cards you can win overall by taking bets only in those times.

Card counting can give you about a 51% win rate.

Even though it seems only a 1% edge, when discovered, casinos were said to be ruined.

Even a 1% edge is a guaranteed win. And it has been banned. If caught using it, you’re barred from entering.

In markets, if you have a favorable bet by even 1%, continuing it can eventually lead to steady wins.

In markets, profitability is determined by win rate and risk-reward, so just aiming for 51%+ win rate isn’t enough; instead, trade where win rate and risk-reward are favorable.

For example, if you were to bet from line ①, you’d assess it this way.

In reality I didn’t enter, but if you had entered there,

a stop would occur around 8 pips (risk). When profitable, you could aim for over 40 pips (reward).

If you win once in six, you’re even. Win: 1 time + 40 pips Loss: -8×5 times = -40 pips

If the win rate is over 16.6%, it’s a winning game.

It’s not about predicting price movement; it’s continuing favorable bets, sometimes winning and sometimes losing, but aiming to stay ahead overall.

If you grasp this, you won’t be discouraged by a stop-out when a prediction fails. Outcomes are random in wins and losses.

Even during losing streaks, if you know you’re continuing favorable bets, you’ll be fine. In the long run, you’ll surely win.

As legendary trader Richard Dennis said, the result of each trade is luck, but in the long run luck doesn’t come in; if you keep favorable bets, you’ll surely win.

Setting up those favorable bets, the basis for SL and TP risk-reward, is the horizontal line.

Draw an effective line.

From line ② to line ①, it moves cleanly, doesn’t it?

Even from the results, ① and ② were capable of drawing key lines.

Since you were aiming for selling, you couldn’t take from ② to ①, but if you can’t anticipate the movement from this line to this line, you can’t consider risk-reward for entry.

So, I think the first step is to be able to draw the lines.

In the FX member blog, advance scenario writing is no longer possible, but you can learn how to draw lines and how to craft scenarios, so if you’re interested, please subscribe and take a look.

I thought about how to make subscribers able to draw lines and scenarios.

Have them produce outputs.

Recently, on the old member blog, I posted a problem.

Everyone drew a scenario and submitted it.

Everyone could do it, and I was really happy.

In the future, I’ll post topics and only those who can do it will participate, but I’m thinking of asking for submissions.

I’ll introduce the scenarios everyone drew and check them.

If there are aspects many people tend to misunderstand, my explanations may become clearer.

Only explanations and models for drawing lines and scenarios are posted,

“Whether readers can do it or not, I don’t care,”

is not the idea here; I’d like readers to output and for us to verify it together.

Recently, due to various matters, advance scenarios could no longer be produced, but in the end I’m glad about it.

Rather than just letting readers cheat, the original goal was for readers to learn it themselves, so it became a chance to revisit that objective.

There were many developments, but I’ve had help from many people.

When I could no longer do advance scenarios, I anticipated heavy criticism from readers, but there was none; many kind words were extended to me, thank you all.

For everyone, I will respond by thinking and working to meet your needs.

I will continue to do so within a healthy, legal scope, so thank you in advance.

I’d be happy to receive feedback or impressions. I’ll use them as references for future articles.

Question or feedback contact: takashipsychology@yahoo.co.jp

Impressions may be introduced within the articles (personal information will be withheld).

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