【Daily Trade Newspaper Evening Edition】The reason the USD/JPY holds firm despite the cross-yen decline
Hello, I’m Neko-kai from Trade Idea Lab.
Good evening. Here is today’s evening edition.
■ Cross-yen falls, but will the dollar/yen hold up?
“Euro/yen and pound/yen are dropping, yet the dollar/yen isn’t falling as much as expected.”
I’ve been getting this question a lot since yesterday.
It certainly looks puzzling, doesn’t it.
But this isexplained if you understand the flow of funds.
■ What’s happening behind the scenes
Due to the Middle East war, there is a safe-haven dollar buy.
The dollar/yen is falling.
However, it isn’t simply a case of a “dominant dollar” anymore.
That’s because concerns about the US creditworthiness are in play.
The dollar is needed for now.
But people don’t want to hold it long-term.
Funds that were withdrawn from overseas investments return to the dollar.
But afterward, they shift into the yen.
As a result,
- Dollar/yen falls
- Cross-yen falls
- Dollar/yen sticks around
This is the setup.
■ Yesterday’s results
Buy in the 156.00-156.20 zone
Target 1: 157.00
Target 2: 157.50
Target 2 was reached.
There were multiple opportunities in the morning, noon, and evening.
You don’t need to take them all.
Take what you can, as much as you can.
■ Today’s strategy
Buy in the 157.00-157.20 zone
Around this area, there is
・Today’s PP (Pivot Point)
・Futures price
・157.00 yen options
concentrated.
Continue the pullback buying stance.
However, the daily chart upper Bollinger Band is approaching.
Be careful not to chase too far around 158–159 yen.
■ Evening edition summary
The market moves not by news, but by funds.
Funds flow not by emotion, but by structure.
Environment recognition → Strategy → Tactics → Operations
Remain steady again today.
With that, have a good night.