“RCI Trade” is a simple, high-win-rate, highly reproducible trading method.

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Simple, high win rate, high reproducibility! RCI Trade

AUD-NZD

As of March 2026, this pair is in an extremely contrasting phase: a) the “country that continues to raise rates last among the major economies” in Australia, and b) NZ in a phase where it has begun easing due to fears of a recession. and the NZ economy is in a phase of recession and easing, making it a stark contrast.

1. This Week’s Outlook: Fundamentals Analysis

?? Australia (AUD): Caution on an Additional Rate Hike

Australia’s economy faces the stubborn inflation among advanced economies.

• Policy rate outlook:The current policy rate is3.85%. The RBA keeps the option of an additional rate hike (to 4.10%) on the table, citing continued service price increases. In Tuesday this week, Governor Lowe’s speech is likely to reaffirm this hawkish stance.

• Economic conditions:The labor market remains very tight (low unemployment), and wage growth supports consumption. If the GDP for the Oct-Dec quarter (10-12月期GDP) comes in higher than expected (roughly +0.8% QoQ), markets would gain confidence in further tightening, accelerating AUD gains.

?? New Zealand (NZD): Recession and Easing Phase

Conversely, NZ's economy has shown strong side effects from the earlier aggressive tightening.

• Policy rate outlook:The RBNZ cut rates to 2.25% at last month’s meeting. Inflation is returning toward target, and the emphasis is on not cooling the economy too much.

• Economic conditions:High household debt is suppressing consumption, and the housing market is weak. Compared with Australia, NZ’s economy lacks residual heat, so carry trades are far less attractive than AUD.

2. Summary and Key Points for This Week

The disparity between these two countries is producing a structural trend in the currency pair of “AUD higher, NZD lower.”

• Interest rate differentials (swaps) attractiveness:With Australia possibly hiking and NZ cutting, the swap points spread widens when holding this pair long. This is a strong long-term factor drawing funds into AUD.

• Impact of China’s economy:China’s stimulus efforts in 2026 are starting to bear fruit. Australia, being more resource-export dependent (iron ore, etc.), tends to benefit more directly from China’s recovery than NZ, which relies more on dairy exports.

Ignoring the technicals and following macro direction, the strategy is to continue to buy AUD (long).

• Main Scenario:If Tuesday’s RBA Governor speech and Australia’s GDP on Wednesday come out strong, the AUD/NZD could rise toward1.1900–1.2000. In this case, there would be little NZ-side catalysts, suggesting a one-sided AUD strength rally.

• Risk Scenario:If Australia’s GDP underperforms and the RBA signals a rate hike pause, there could be a temporary “AUD selloff” with a price adjustment. However, as long as NZ’s rates stay low, the downside should be limited.

EUR-GBP

This week, the contrast between the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious stance and the BoE’s countdown to rate cuts will be a major driver of price movements.

1. This Week’s Outlook: Fundamentals Analysis

Policy Rate Outlook

• ?? Euro Area (ECB): Hold and wait

  • Current policy rate: 2.15% (Deposit facility rate).

  • Outlook:The ECB council meeting is on the 19th, and a hold is highly likely. Inflation in January fell to about 1.7%, below the 2% target, but Lagarde and other officials remain hawkish about sticky services inflation, delaying rate cuts into early summer. This supports the euro’s relative stability.

• ?? United Kingdom (BoE): Market forces pricing in March rate cut

  • Current policy rate: 3.75%.

  • Outlook:Markets are focused on the BoE MPC meeting on March 19. With January inflation at around3.0%, the probability of a March cut (0.25%) is priced at about 86%. If expectations for a cut rise further this week, it would pressure GBP lower and EUR/GBP higher.

Economic Conditions Analysis

• ?? Euro Area: gradual recovery and cooling inflation

  • GDP growth around 1.2%–1.3% in 2026, stable but not robust. Germany’s fiscal stimulus is expected to support the region. Stable inflation supports the euro’s relative economic stability.

• ?? United Kingdom: worsening labor market and fiscal events

  • Unemployment in the UK has risen to **5.1%**; labor market weakness is evident. On March 3 (Tuesday), the Spring Economic Forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will be published, followed by the budget. If fiscal stimulus remains inadequate, there is a risk of accelerated pound selling due to recession concerns.

2. Summary and This Week’s Key Points

This week, EUR/GBP is likely to see a rising bias due to a weaker pound.Key events:• March 3 (Tue): OBR Spring Economic Forecast

• 1. • If the UK economy is downgraded, it will heighten expectations for a rate cut and weaken the pound.

  2. March 3 (Tue): Eurozone February flash HICP

     • If inflation surprises higher than 1.7%, it may push back expectations for ECB rate cuts and support the euro.

• Direction:With the central banks diverging (ECB on hold vs BoE potentially cutting), the macro view for the week favors EUR/GBP “buying on dips” (euro up, pound down).

  
  

NOK-SEK

This pair, between two Nordic currencies, is currently shaped by the expectation that Norway keeps high rates while Sweden has pivoted toward hold, highlighting the rate differential.

1. This Week’s Outlook: Fundamentals Analysis

Policy Rate Outlook

• ?? Norway (Norges Bank): Maintain a high level

  • Current policy rate: 4.00%

  • Outlook:Norway’s central bank kept rates at the January meeting, but inflation cooling is slower than expected, making rate cuts highly cautious. There is a long horizon before the next decision (March 26), but officials continue hawkish rhetoric, which strengthens NOK.

• ?? Sweden (Riksbank): Pause in rate-cut cycle and wait-and-see

  • Current policy rate: 1.75%

  • Outlook:Riksbank held at 1.75% at its January meeting. The rate-cut cycle paused, but the large interest rate gap with Norway (2.25%) remains a structural downward pressure on the Swedish krona. This week, attention will be on the March 19 deputy committee meeting.

Economic Conditions Analysis

• ?? Norway: Oil price and FX correlation

  • Norwegian economy is supported by stable energy prices. Brent crude in the North Sea remains solid, a positive for NOK. However, the central bank remains vigilant about the krone weakening and will keep high rates to curb imported inflation.

• ?? Sweden: Signs of economic pickup and housing market

  • Sweden’s economy is expected to grow around 2.9% in 2026. Yet external risks such as geopolitical tensions and tariff policies may weigh on exports, leading Riksbank to stay cautious and not push too hard yet.

2. Summary and This Week’s Key Points

This week, NOK/SEK is likely to continue the trend of buying NOK and selling SEK, driven by the interest rate differential (4.00% vs 1.75%).

• Key Events:

  1. March 3 (Tue): Norway Manufacturing PMI

     • Stronger than expected activity would reduce expectations for NOK cuts, supporting NOK.

  2. March 5 (Thu): Sweden Services PMI

     • If services PMI undershoots, expectations for Riksbank easing rise, pressuring SEK lower.

• Direction:Given the policy rate gap (4.00% vs 1.75%), fundamentals favor NOK/SEK as a “long NOK, short SEK” scenario.

EUR/PLN

This week, the biggest event for this pair is the Polish central bank (NBP) policy decision meeting on March 3–4.

1. This Week’s Outlook: Fundamentals Analysis

Policy Rate Outlook

• ?? Poland (NBP): High likelihood of rate cuts resuming

  • Current policy rate: 4.00%

  • Outlook:Governor Glapinski signaled at the January meeting that March would be a good time to consider a cut. Markets are pricing in a 0.25% cut to 3.75% in this week’s main scenario.

  • Attention:At the same time, the latest inflation and GDP projections being released could justify further cuts, adding downward pressure on the zloty (PLN).

• ?? Euro Area (ECB): Cautious hold

  • Current policy rate: 2.15%

  • Outlook:Inflation in the euro area remains below 2%, but ECB is wary that quick rate cuts could re-ignite wage growth. A hold is expected mid-month; if Poland cuts, the euro-zloty spread would narrow.

Economic Conditions Analysis

• ?? Poland: Strong growth with low inflation

  • Poland’s economy is approaching a 4% GDP growth rate in 2026, driven by large investments from EU recovery funds (KPO).

• ?? Euro Area: Slow recovery

  • The euro area is recovering gradually, but rapid growth like Poland’s is not observed. However, relatively high economic stability and ECB’s reluctance to rush cuts support the euro.

2. Summary and This Week’s Key Points

This week’s EUR/PLN is likely to have a downside bias for PLN as Poland contemplates rate cuts, causing the PLN to weaken and EUR/PLN to rise.

• Key Schedule:

  1. March 4 (Wed): NBP policy rate announcement

     • If the cut is 0.25% as expected, it may be a data-release event with potentially more rate-cut hints pushing PLN lower.

  2. March 5 (Thu): Glapinski press conference

     • Statements about the pace of future cuts (where the terminal rate will be set at 3.25–3.50%) will be crucial.

• Direction:With ECB holding while NBP cuts, the near-term outlook favors EUR/PLN rising (euro stronger, zloty weaker). However, Poland’s economic fundamentals are strong, so a sharp PLN decline is not expected.