Lecture 1: Why Do FX Rates Move?
This is Trade Coach Max.
In this series starting today, I will deliver a “Foundations Course” that decodes the essence of the market, which I reached after 20 years of study.
First, for the first episode, let's begin with the question that genuine beginners naturally have.
“Why do FX rates move in the first place?” “Can we really predict future price movements?”
■ Why do FX rates move?
In simple terms, FX rates (prices) move based on whether buy orders or sell orders are numerically larger, just like stocks.
For example, in USD/JPY trading, if at a certain moment there are people who want to buy 10 billion yen worth of dollars and others who want to buy 1 billion yen worth of yen, the demand for dollars is much higher than for yen, so the rate moves toward “stronger dollar.”
There used to be a fixed exchange rate system where USD/JPY was fixed at 360 yen per dollar. But now we operate under a flexible exchange rate system, and the rate changes every second and every minute according to global supply and demand.
(By the way, please note that theoretically there is zero possibility of returning to a fixed system in the future.)
■ Can FX rates be predicted?
Now, this is more important for us.
“Can we predict in advance where the rate will reverse?”
If you can answer this, you can trade at pinpoint moments and profit. I tried asking the AI, which is currently popular, “Can FX rates be predicted where they will reverse?” and it replied, “Yes, it is possible to predict with technical analysis.”
Scroll the screen, and the AI confidently extols the effectiveness of technical analysis.
Honestly, this was a bit surprising to me.About 20 years ago, the claim that “prices are unpredictable” was common, and if you said, “I trade with technical analysis,” experts would give you a skeptical look.
From that perspective, one might say that technical analysis has now become publicly acknowledged and is a good era for traders (laughs).
■ What matters is “how you use it.”
As the AI also points out, reversal points in FX can be identified with high probability through technical analysis.
However, one important thing here. It is,“how you use the technicals, the way of thinking.”.
Not just waiting for signals, but understanding why the reversal occurs at that point on your own. That is the first step toward becoming an autonomous trader.
Tomorrow, we will begin by looking at the most fundamental aspect of technical analysis: how to read candlesticks.
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