[Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Economic Environment Awareness and Memo_20260301]
March 1st, Sunday.
Hello.
The weather is becoming springlike
and the forecast temperature will rise above 17°C.
It will be a good day to go out, but
the pollen is the drawback.
At our house, we always keep a lint roller at the entrance
and after coming home, we shake ourselves off outside the entrance
and then do a lint-roller at the doorway
to prevent pollen on clothes from entering the indoors.
We are making an effort.
Even so, coughing indoors is severe,
so the PlasmaCluster has no time to rest. (laugh)
I hope pollen dispersal ends soon.
Now, about the weekend events: a war has started in the Middle East.
Israel and Iran.
The United States also seems to be participating,
so it could develop into a religious war.
This will likely be an eternal theme.
Due to this incident, from Monday onward,
I have a feeling that the US dollar will be bought up.
Well, let's confirm.
The figures are at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 14th bar / 13
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 31st bar / 27 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 6th bar / 2
Weekly volatility: 68 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 81st bar / 58 or
Daily: 1st cycle, 30th bar / 7 or
Daily: 1st cycle, 7th bar / 3
4HC 1st or 3rd, 38th bar / 9
I interpret it as above.
There are multiple scenarios
and this pair is not suitable as a trading target.
Also, weekly volatility is too small.
There is an anomaly that tends to occur around midterm elections.
It seems to be the case.
I see it as a currency pair to watch quietly.
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20260301_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentaryhttps://youtu.be/pSsDE9kILqE
https://youtu.be/pSsDE9kILqE
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 18th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 24th bar / 18
Weekly volatility: 282 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 59th bar / 27 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 23rd bar / 9
4HC 2nd or 5th, 71st bar / 57 or
4HC 3rd cycle, 5th bar / 2
I interpret it as above.
The scenarios that seem most likely are
the daily 3rd, and 4th HPC 3rd scenarios.
From a daily triangle consolidation,
will it break upward?
I am skeptical.
If it moves around 160 yen, intervention might surface
and it could cap there?
That would be the scenario.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 14th bar
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 17th bar / 13
Weekly volatility: 135 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 30th bar / 7
4HC 3rd cycle, 38th bar / 27
I interpret it as above.
Whether 4HC is 1st or 3rd is a question.
If it rises as is, it would become 4HC 1st
and a Half Primary Cycle (HPC) scenario would also occur.
I think it would be quite rare, though...
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 19th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 31st bar / 26
Weekly volatility: 277 pips
Daily: 4th or 1st, 12th bar / 10
4HC 2nd cycle, 6th bar / 5
I interpret it as above.
If the dollar weakens and the yen weakens,
cross yen pairs will stay on the upside.
If 4HC switches,
I think the outlook will be upwards for a while.
Even if EUR/USD is in a range,
USD/JPY rising could heavily impact it.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 19th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 30th bar / 27 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 2nd bar / 2
Weekly volatility: 397 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 9th bar / 7
4HC 1st cycle, 51st bar / 38 or
4HC 2nd cycle, 2nd bar / 2
I interpret it as above.
If the weekly chart switches,
it seems likely to form large bullish candles thereafter.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 11th bar
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 28th bar / 26 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 2nd bar
Weekly volatility: 267 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 10th bar / 8
4HC 2nd cycle, 8th bar / 7
I interpret it as above.
The possibility that the weekly cycle has switched is high
and I am prioritizing the 4HC 2 scenario.
The Australian dollar is very strong
and with the policy rate hikes,
if AUD/USD is rising,
USD/JPY rising will also have an impact
and the dollar and yen will weaken,
so AUD/JPY will be bullish.
I wonder how high it will rise...
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20260301_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/pSsDE9kILqE
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US10Y 3.949 -1.52%
DJI 48977 dollars -521 dollars
US500 -0.38%
WTI 67.065 dollars
Nikkei 225 58,850 yen +96
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