[Specially free] Do not quit GOLD

For people who trade GOLD on a short-term basis, here is one piece of advice, free of charge.

I hope this advice wakes you up.

There are a certain number of people who trade GOLD in the short term.
But, to be clear, let me say it plainly.

Short-term trading of GOLD is almost gambling.

Today, I will deliberately give you this advice for free.
Because if you carry strange beliefs of success here, your trading life itself may be ruined.

“No, surely there are people who actually win, right?”
Of course, there are people who win instantly. It happens to anyone.

But that is not areproducible trade, rather
a gambling win that happened by chance.

And when you mistake that “chance”as a success experience, gambling goes on longer.

GOLD is flashy on charts, so beginners tend to get hooked

GOLD has big price moves.
It can rise rapidly in a short time.
Posts on social media often highlight “one-shot profits.”

That's why it looks so appealing.

But the lure is not about ease of winning, it’s about the high gambling-like nature
..

In a market with wide price ranges, if you get it right, you can win big in one shot.
At the same time, the damage when you miss can also be big in one shot.

In other words, GOLD is
a market where, for those with skill, there are times you can usefully trade, but
it is not a market where individuals without an edge should engage in short-term trading.

GOLD has many situations where it’s hard to push through technically

Many people misunderstand this.

In GOLD, technicals work to some extent.

However, GOLD often makes it hard to push through using only technicals

First, GOLD currently is more sensitive to fundamental factors than usual.
In that environment, attempting a discretionary trade using only technical indicators is extremely reckless.

GOLD is a commodity with strong “currency-like” aspects, and it looks FX-like but is different

This is also important.

When you look at GOLD charts,
many people think, “I can treat it the same as FX.”

But that thinking is where the discrepancy begins.

GOLD has strong currency-like aspects even as a commodity, and it looks similar to FX but is different.

Even if the chart shapes are similar, the content is different.
The reasons for moves are different.
The participants are different.

Touching this “different thing” with the same mindset as forex leads to misalignment.

Since the market’s nature is different, this is only natural。

Because it’s a market where over the long term nominal prices tend to rise, there is bias even in short term trading

There’s also another, quietly troublesome point.

GOLD tends to rise in nominal terms when viewed over the long term.
(Because it is sensitive to inflation and changes in currency value)

In other words, structurally,
buyers have a higher apparent win rate.
Conversely,sellers tend to lose more often.

It rises in the long term, so of course.

Therefore, there is a bias in the testing of technical indicators.

As a result, even if you think you’re looking technically,
in reality you end up holding positions based on assumptions more often.

This is another cause of gambling behavior.

“If it’s rising, just hold long-term” is not that easy either

This is easy to misinterpret, so I’ll say it again.

Indeed GOLD can look like it rises in nominal terms.
But,there are normal situations where it loses to inflation even while rising.

In other words,

・If you trade short term you’ll be swept around

・If you buy long term you’ll be beaten by inflation

・If you sell you’ll lose on the downside

GOLD’s price movements are stronger than you think—the opponent is strong

GOLD’s moves are heavily influenced by actual demand, hedging, and macro funds.
On the other hand, the short-term trading crowd is small.

The same is true for FX, but there the impact of real demand is smaller, and technical indicators tend to work more often.
There are markets where fundamentals have a strong influence (Abenomics, Trump rally, COVID shock–monetary easing), but for FX, technicals are the main driver.

If you think “just watching the chart guarantees wins,” you’ll be wrong more often than not.

Behind the candlesticks you’re watching, there are huge funds moving for other purposes.
There are funds not only aiming for profits.

In this market, unprepared individuals rush in for short-term battles.
If you look calmly, it’s quite unreasonable.

Even successful traders rarely focus on GOLD as their main instrument

Let me say it first.
I’m not saying zero.

Somewhere in the world there are people who consistently win with GOLD as their main instrument.
But for the average individual trader, how realistic is that?

Among those who win, almost none use GOLD as their main instrument.

You’ll see “huge profits” on social media.
But that ismomentary wind, not reproducibility.

• It just happened to align by chance

• Heavily leveraged positions paid off

• It recovered if you hadn’t cut losses

• You merely pulled one side of a data release

These kinds of wins can happen to anyone.

The problem is, to mistake those wins
as “this is my forte” or “this is the correct path”
and then biasing your decisions accordingly.

From there, your position sizes rise.
Loss-cutting becomes slower.
You try to get it back.
And gambling becomes a habit.

What you have paid is not “learning”

I’ll be a bit blunt here.

After you’ve traded GOLD and lost money, you haven’t merely paid for learning as you might tell yourself?

That’s not true.

That is not learning; it’s simply a loss.

Learning only occurs when you can verbalize why you lost, change your rules, and prevent recurrence.

But what is the reality?

• You enter somewhat randomly

• You endure against the trend

• You pray

• You either get lucky or get cut

• You do it again

If you keep repeating this,
that is not learning but depletion.

To put it bluntly,
Many people who lose money in GOLD are not learning; they are just dependent.

If you want to win someday, abandon GOLD as an option

If you truly want to win, the first thing to do is simple.

Abandon GOLD.

At a minimum,stop making it your main short-term focus.
Just this alone will greatly reduce unnecessary losses.

People who succeed don’t start with “the flashiest market” from the beginning.
They choose a market that is easier for them to reproduce and to systemize.

Trading isn’t guessing.
It’s a game of reproducibility.

• What to look at

• Where to enter

• Where to exit

• How to manage

Repeating these habits makes you much stronger.

That’s why I emphasize adjusting your logic to the market

There isn’t just one market.
There are markets that, like GOLD, are prone to jumps from news and contain mixed capital intentions.

That’s why
the idea of pushing through with a fixed A leads to B logic is dangerous.

What’s needed is to change judgment according to the market.
And to reduce discretionary drift and wasteful trades.

• Adjusting logic and parameters according to market conditions

• Designs that reduce discretionary bias

• Prioritizing “making it hard to break” over simply “catching” moves

Rather than continue to exhaust yourself in GOLD,
start bycreating reproducibility on a more favorable footing.

That, in the end, is the fastest path.

Finally

GOLD isn’t inherently bad.
But for individual traders who operate on short timeframes, it is a market prone to gambling.

The losses you have incurred so far were not due to lack of talent.
It’s highly likely the market you chose was wrong.

So, first, abandon it.
Those who can make that judgment will change their trading.