Chapter 2: The Reversal Logic ~ Only Those Who Kill the "Individual's Will" Win ~

From this chapter onward, this is Chapter 2. It exposes the futility of the ubiquitous technical analysis and marks the break from a gambling-trade driven by emotion, in this, the 2nd chapter, 1st part: Graduation from Pachinko-trade and disposal of “adult toys.”

【1st: Graduation from Pachinko-trade and Disposal of the “Adult Toy”】

Aren’t you enjoying the “pachinko” named trading?

There is a deadly trap that many entering the market fall into unconsciously. It is that they treat trading as “intellectual entertainment” or a “stimulating game.”

I used to be the same.

Going home from work, staying up late in front of the computer, staring at volatile charts like the pound-yen.

And, relying on my experience (and my assumption), I click the mouse, thinking, “This should reverse here!” or “This pattern is a guaranteed sell signal!”

If the prediction is correct, I bask in a sense of invincibility as if my talent is proven to the world; if it’s wrong, I become feverishly determined to recoup with a bigger lot, staring at the monitor.

This exhilaration, this frustration, this “maybe I’ll win next time” baseless hope.

All of this is no different from the feeling of gripping a handle at a pachinko parlor and reacting to the LED’s signals.

When funds run out in the account, I would replenish it with another “Quick Deposit” from the bank and jump back into the market. This is no longer investing or speculating; it’s simply the behavior pattern of a gambling addiction.

However, truly successful “pros” who have made money for a quarter of a century in the market do not seek any enjoyment in trading. Rather, they insist that “making money in the market is truly boring and uninteresting.”

When I was a technician in a small factory, I would cook three liters of rice daily to make the ideal rice cooker, and monotonously keep data to increase yield. There was no thrill or excitement in those tasks.

It was simply “work” and “labor.” Trading should be exactly the same.

Only those who can dutifully, mechanically, emotionlessly execute orders based on rules proven to have edge (advantage) qualify to turn the market into an ATM.

Courage to discard the “adult toy” of technical indicators

Traders who can’t win in the market fill charts with colorful lines and indicators.

MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku, Stochastics… These overlap to produce perfect signals, and people spend hundreds or thousands of hours testing, believing in them as the Holy Grail.

I used to be like that as well.

I built a “strongest system” by combining 15 parameters to perfectly fit past data, indulging in the upward-trending P/L curve.

But once real money was投入, the system stopped functioning as if mocking me, and I watched wealth melt away rapidly.

The reason is clear: it fell into the trap of “overfitting” (curve-fitting).

Systems that are tailored to past data post hoc cannot adapt to future markets at all.

Markets always change; what was common sense yesterday becomes nonsense today. As famous futures trader Bernstein said, “40–60% of what happens in markets is meaningless randomness.”

Assuming every chart pattern has meaning and applying multiple complex filters is simply playing with a “adult toy” to feel secure.

Truly functional logic is always “simple enough for an elementary student to understand.”

One day, I made a big decision.

I quit showing dozens of indicators and stopped drawing even a single trendline.

When I stripped away the clutter from the chart, what appeared for the first time were the market’s baseless “biases” and “anomalies.”

25-year undefeated philosophy: The courage to keep rolling the dice

“Should I buy today, or sell?”

Every morning I check the news, react to yesterday’s Dow moves, listen to forecasts from famous analysts. To you who invest this kind of effort, I must tell a cruel truth.

“Reading the Nikkei newspaper until your eyes bleed won’t help you win in the market.”
There is no one in the world who can perfectly predict the market’s future.

If such a person exists, they would monopolize assets worldwide, but in reality even hedge funds filled with Nobel laureates make wrong predictions and fail.

My “roller-dice investing method” is, as the name implies, a system that mechanically repeats buys and sells at fixed times each day.

In the Nikkei 225 futures, enter at a specific time and exit at a specific time.

This extremely simple trading rule has steadily accumulated profits for a quarter century since 1994, surviving IT bubble bursts and the Lehman crisis.

What these 25 years of data prove is not that the logic is superb, but that the explosive power lies in maintaining consistent rules over time.

Many traders give up after a few losses, thinking “this method is no good,” and discard the system. But if a method has proven positive expectancy, temporary losses are only a cost; beyond the losses, the law of large numbers leads to wins.



“It’s okay to catch fish and it’s okay not to catch fish”: Letting go of attachment to results

The biggest barrier to continuing system trading is not developing the method but the human emotions.

Humans instinctively feel losses much more acutely than the pleasure of profits. If several losses occur, fear makes you unable to press the next button; if there’s a big win, hubris makes you want to break the rules and gamble recklessly.

The motto I value is, “It’s okay to catch fish and it’s okay not to.”

A fisherman cannot control whether the fish will bite the hook. What he can do is choose proven spots, prepare the right rig, and just cast the line calmly.

If no fish is caught, there is no need to curse the river or blame oneself. Just cast again tomorrow, in the same way.

Trading is exactly the same. Today’s win or loss is merely the market’s capriciousness. What we should do is suppress our own will and become the system’s servant, carrying out the harvesting task calmly.

“Live today as yesterday, and live today as tomorrow.” This seemingly dull, unchanging discipline is the唯一の “reverse logic” that will transform your bank account into an ATM that endlessly creates money.

Resolve to seal your own will

To close this article, I will tell you the most important thing.

It is that, “your thoughts have no value whatsoever to the market.”

“Trump’s remarks will push the market up” or “the economy is weak, so it should go down.” Personal market views and sense of market will only contaminate trading.

Let go of these and become a slave to verified “mechanisms (systems).” Only those who do can continuously withdraw money from the market.

There is no need to fear an uncertain future.

With statistics and probability as an unshakable mathematical shield, seal your own will. Then, starting tomorrow morning, your trading will become a simple, steady task, and your bank account will quietly but steadily grow.

Next time, in 2nd part, I will explain in detail a concrete perspective to hack the market’s non-logical regularities, the “anomalies.”