[Trajectory to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260215]
February 15th, Sunday.
Hello.
It’s a clear day in the south Kanto region.
A good day for laundry.
Because pollen seems to be flying a lot,
I want to take good care of my throat while wearing a mask.
Now, USD/JPY
has fallen sharply.
When the political situation stabilizes
the currency may strengthen as well.
Before the election, there were whispers of revisiting Takashi’s trade?
but
the content indicates higher stock prices and stronger currencies
which would be a favorable environment for Japanese people.
Well then, let’s confirm it.
This is the number of units at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 14th bar / 13
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 29th bar / 27 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 4th bar / 2
Weekly volatility: 118 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 71st bar / 58 or
Daily: 1st cycle, 20th bar / 7
4HC 2nd cycle, 36th bar / 17
I interpret it this way.
The weekly volatility has become small again, it seems to be in a range.
Since it may stay in balance for a while,
waiting-and-seeing would be the correct approach.
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20260215_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/ZXl5KXb7r4k
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 18th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 22nd bar / 18
Weekly volatility: 538 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 49th bar / 27 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 13th bar / 9
4HC 1st or 4th, 78th bar / 49 or
4HC 2nd cycle, 11th bar / 3
I interpret it this way.
As a result of the ruling party’s overwhelming victory,
the stability led to currency gains.
In the move after the employment data,
I think some kind of bomb was dropped, but
the chart is forming a down Dow.
I would like to view it from a bearish perspective.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 14th bar
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 15th bar / 13
Weekly volatility: 125 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 20th bar / 7
4HC 2nd cycle, 36th bar / 22
I interpret it this way.
Dollar strength is low,
across currencies there has been a balance.
If the US dollar doesn’t move,
Europe won’t move,
and if balance is broken somewhere
it will become a tradeable currency pair.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 19th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 29th bar / 26
Weekly volatility: 542 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 49th bar / 34
4HC 1st cycle, 87th bar / 58
I interpret it this way.
This currency pair is greatly influenced by USD/JPY.
With the range of EUR/USD and
the yen strength of USD/JPY,
it has moved significantly toward stronger yen.
From now on, I think this may continue for a while?
to be observed.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 19th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 28th bar / 27
Weekly volatility: 675 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 71st bar / 64
4HC 1st cycle, 87th bar / 43
I interpret it this way.
The movement of GBP/USD has been influenced by USD/JPY.
The weekly volatility of 675 is large.
Due to the range, I think LOT adjustments will be necessary when trading.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 11th bar
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 26th bar / 26
Weekly volatility: 309 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 71st bar / 67
4HC 5th cycle, 82nd bar / 53
I interpret it this way.
Oceania faced a difficult situation.
Although AUD/USD rose,
AUD/JPY fell,
which I see as influenced by the decline in USD/JPY.
If USD/JPY makes a bottom and moves,
it will have a corresponding impact.
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20260215_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/ZXl5KXb7r4k
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【Summary】
For a while, trading will likely be only USD/JPY.
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US10Y 4.05 -1.22%
DJI 49,500 dollars +48
US500 -0.2%
WTI 62.495 dollars
Nikkei 225 56,941 yen -697
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Let’s learn together.
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Nohbito Rei
