【February 13 Dollar-Yen Review】

The pre-scenario was like this.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/finance/navi/articles/110126

• The rally continued

• The bottom was firmer than expected

• Possibility of movement on Friday in NY

Strategy is simple.

✔ Long a light amount during the day

✔ If it breaks lower at night, reverse now

“Don’t lock in a single outcome”

■ Result

The strategy worked well.

Rotated longs during the day.

NY faced strong downward pressure, so we responded with shorts.

There were moments of overconfidence and wasteful trades (laughs)

Even so, overall profit was solid.

In the end, it finished in the green.

What's important is

that the direction was correct even if not perfect.

■ NY Time Movement

Indeed, the downward pressure was strong.

However—

the low could not be broken.

This is the key point.

If the market were truly weak,

the low would have been broken on Friday NY and moved lower.

That was not possible.

■ Focus for Next Week

There are two scenarios.

① Monday, the low is not broken and a rebound occurs

→ Potential for a sizable short-covering rally

② Clear break of the low

→ Accelerate to the downside, bear-side view

Now is a turning point.

Don’t lock in a single view;

I want to wait and act after watching Monday’s price action.

? Conclusion

Friday responded according to the plan.

What’s important is not just winning

but being able to act according to the scenario.

Next week is about whether the price will break the low or not.

That is everything.