Forecasts for the foreign exchange (FX) market for the one-week period starting February 16, 2026 (Monday), and trading notes.
Forecasts for the currency (FX) market for the week starting Monday, February 16, 2026, and trading notes.
This week features a combination of liquidity dampened by the early-week U.S. market holidays and the release of key indicators that will determine the direction of monetary policy in both Japan and the United States, making it a week prone to abrupt moves and requiring vigilance against sudden fluctuations.
1. Weekly calendar and important events
| Schedule | Event/Indicator | Attention | Impact/Points |
| 2/16 (Mon) | U.S.: Presidents' Day (holiday) | ★★★ | NY market closed. Liquidity will fall sharply, so be wary of aggressive moves (flash crashes, etc.) in early hours or European session. |
| 2/17 (Tue) | U.S.: NY FedManufacturing Index | ||
| 2/18 (Wed) | Japan: Preliminary GDP for Oct-Dec | ★★★ | If Japan's economy shows resilience,expectation of additional BOJ rate hikesmay rise, providing a yen-buying (yen-strengthening) factor. |
| 2/18 (Wed) | U.S.: FOMC Minutes (for January meeting) | ||
| 2/20 (Fri) | ★★★ |
2. This week’s trading scenarios and forecasts
【USD/JPY】
Forecast range:A nervous range around last week’s close (directionless).
Scenario:
Early week (Mon–Tue):With U.S. markets closed and the holiday aftermath, liquidity is thin, sorange-bound tradingis the baseline. However, be highly cautious of sudden moves driven by thin liquidity (stop hunts).
Mid to late week:Focus on Japan’s GDP (Wednesday) and CPI (Friday). If personal consumption improves due to wage growth from late-2025, expectations of an early BOJ rate hike (around spring) rise, creatingyen-strengthening pressuretending to build.
On the other hand, if U.S. economic indicators (inflation-related) remain strong, dollar strength may persist, suggesting a pattern of “upper moves are heavy but lower moves are solid.”
【Cross-yen and others】
If the government under the Kishida administration continues to pursue active fiscal policy, risk-on sentiment could push yen selling, supporting firm levels in AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, etc.
3. Three points to watch most closely
Monday’s “dangerous time window”
February 16 (Mon) is a U.S. market holiday for Presidents’ Day. In particular during the early hours (Australia-New Zealand markets) or late afternoon when European markets open, liquidity tends to thin,and a small amount of orders can move the rate by several yen. Position management should be more cautious than usual (reduce position sizes, place tight stops).
Japan GDP result and “BOJ play”
Wednesday’s GDP flash estimate is a key indicator that will determine BOJ stance this year. If the result is stronger than expected, the market may fully price in a rate hike by March or April, leading torapid yen appreciation (sharp USD/JPY drop)possible.
Trump administration (U.S.) rhetoric risk
With midterm elections approaching, statements from Trump’s circle regarding dollar strength corrections or trade policies (tariffs, etc.) may be made abruptly. In particular, headlines during periods of low liquidity can move markets significantly, so please watch headline news closely.
Summary: next week’s strategy
In the first half of the week, focus on avoiding “holiday risk” and remain on the sidelines or use short-term rotations. After Japan’s GDP release on Wednesday, follow the trend of “BOJ rate hike pricing” with a trend-following approach for a safer strategy.