[Employment Statistics Trade Review] The reason I had decided, “If it spikes, I short”

This month's employment statistics.

There was only one pre-decided rule.

"When it spikes, go short."

The market environment favored fading rallies.

An ascent does not equal a trend change.

Therefore,

if it moves up, you don't “chase” it—you “hammer” it.

Indicators are not for predicting,

but for exploiting overreactions.

■ Price action right after the employment data

・Instant surge

・Then it stalls

・Almost all the way back

A typical "liquidity retracement" pattern.

The difference between those who jumped in here and those who waited becomes clear.

■ Actual trades

This time the approach was simple.

① Rotate long during the decline

② Confirm the stall after the spike

③ Short several times around 154 yen

What was particularly significant was

154.275 → 153.817

+229,000 yen

Final result:

＋656,400 yen

It was not a one-shot victory,

but a buildup of an advantageous position.

■ Why did it work?

✔ We had decided in advance to “sell if it spikes”

✔ We did not jump in the direction of the move

✔ We “attracted” the selling pressure

The winning factor was not technique.

It was the prior decision making.

■ Summary

Indicator trading is not scary.

What’s scary is

・Entering without a scenario

・Judging movements based on emotion

What I realized again this time is

the outcome is decided before entry.

The market favors those who are prepared.