【Path to Dream_FX_Key Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260208】

February 8, Sunday.

Hello.

A place in the Southern Kanto region where snow doesn’t suit it.
I’m glad it’s Sunday.

The roads aren’t covered with snow,
but the roofs of every house are all white.

Today is voting day.
From tomorrow morning, there seems to be a big movement ahead.

We should be careful.


Well then, let’s confirm.
This is the number at the closing timing of the daily chart.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly 14th bar / 13
Weekly 2nd cycle 28th bar / 27 or
Weekly 3rd cycle 3rd bar / 2
Weekly volatility 109 pips
Daily HPC 2nd 66th bar / 58 or
Daily 1st cycle 15th bar / 7
4HC 2nd cycle 6th bar / 5

I interpret it as such.

The daily and weekly charts have switched
and it seems to have moved to 4HC 2nd.

In case of future rise,
1.1765 is likely to be the starting point.

In case of future decline
1.1775 is likely to be the starting point.

To be acceptable in either case
I want to watch carefully.

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20260208_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/zPsI9Abh18Y
*****************************
 
　　　
【USD/JPY】
Monthly 18th
Weekly 3rd cycle 21st / 18
Weekly volatility 278 pips
Daily 3rd cycle 8th / 8
4HC 1st cycle 48th / 40

I think so.

The daily has switched
Typically, a MC view becomes strong.

Since the daily 2nd cycle breaks its starting point
somewhere, the daily starting point break may need to be considered as well.
It may be necessary to include this in the view.

That said
If today’s vote gives the ruling party a landslide victory
there is a high possibility of a gap up opening.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly 14th
Weekly 2nd cycle 14th / 13
Weekly volatility 224 pips
Daily 2nd cycle 15th / 7
4HC 2nd cycle 6th / 5

I think so.

I expect the USD to be sold.
Moving to 4HC 2 invites higher rise prospects.


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly 19th
Weekly 3rd cycle 28th / 26 or
Weekly 4th cycle 2nd
Weekly volatility 261 pips
Daily 4th or 1st 10th / 10
4HC 1st cycle 57th / 57

I think so.

EUR/USD range
Affected by the rise of USD/JPY
This chart is influenced by USD/JPY.

If daily 4th,
a scenario of moving toward yen appreciation can be considered,
but we need to consider what would drive yen appreciation.



【GBP/JPY】
Monthly 19th
Weekly 4th cycle 2nd
Weekly volatility 371 pips
Daily 1st cycle 10th / 8
4HC 1st cycle 57th / 43

I think so.

The daily and weekly charts have switched
and I see a new upward bias.

It may depend on USD/JPY,
if GBP/USD starts moving down
it may be affected.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly 11th
Weekly 3rd cycle 2nd / 2
Weekly volatility 352 pips
Daily 1st cycle 9th / 9
4HC 1st cycle 52nd / 52

I think so.

In AUD/USD, 4HC 2nd has broken the starting point,
the relationship with USD/JPY is delicate.


Indeed, AUD/JPY has risen too much.

Will it continue to rise?
Or
will a candlestick form somewhere?

I want to watch the charts carefully.

 
****************************
20260208_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/zPsI9Abh18Y
*****************************
 

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US10Y 4.208 +0.48%
DJI 50115 dollars +1206 dollars
US500 +2.33%
WTI 63.165 dollars
Nikkei 225 54253 yen +435 yen
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