Weekly forecast and cautions for the foreign exchange market centered on USD/JPY for the week starting February 9, 2026 (Monday)
As of now (February 6), USD/JPY isin the mid-156sand has rapidly recovered from the late January plunge to the 152 area. Next week is expected to be a highly volatile week with two major events overlapping: the election results in Japan and the U.S. CPI release.
USD/JPY forecast for next week (starting February 9)
Forecast range: 154.50 to 158.50
Tone: Stable at the bottom but prone to sharp swings（Big risk of a gap at the start depending on election results）
1. Basis and detailed explanation
① Post-Japanese election political situation (initial movement on Monday)
What to watch most in the market next week isthe opening price on Monday the 9th (early morning). Depending on the election results on the weekend (assumed the 8th), the market may start with a significant gap.
If the ruling party secures a stable majority:
Scenario:Political stability tends to induce risk-on sentiment, leading to yen selling and dollar buying. The association with the long-standing “stock up, yen down” regime since Abenomics and the carry trade continues to be in focus,testing the 157 yen level.
If the ruling party loses the majority or struggles:
Scenario:Political and fiscal uncertainty increases. In the short term, there will be a mix of “yen selling (yen depreciation)” and risk-averse “yen buying,” causing sharp swings. In particular, if coalition talks are reported to be difficult, concerns about political pressure on the Bank of Japan’s normalization (rate hikes) could arise, making the market direction hard to determine.
② U.S. CPI release (Wednesday the 11th)
This week's biggest economic event. In Japanese time,Wednesday the 11th at 22:30the January U.S. CPI will be released.
Importance:Currently, the main reason USD/JPY has recaptured from the 152 to around 156 is the expectation that U.S. inflation remains stubborn and rate cuts are pushed back.
Forecast:If CPI tops expectations (inflation re-accelerates), U.S. rates rise and dollar buying accelerates,raising attention to last year’s highs and the 158–160 intervention watch zone. Conversely, a miss could trigger a rapid move back toward 154.
③ Technical analysis
After briefly falling to 152.45 on January 27, an clear uptrend (rebound) has formed.
Support target:The 155.00 area is a key support level. If this is broken, the downside may intensify.
Resistance target:The recent rebound high in the mid-157s to 158.00 faces strong resistance.
2. Key risks to watch
Reignited risk of intervention (157–158 area)
If USD/JPY climbs above 157 and accelerates, the market may hear stronger rhetoric for “jawboning” intervention. Market is sensitive to stance on yen depreciation from the new or continuing administration right after the election. Statements like “we will take firm action against speculative moves” could trigger sharp yen buying by algorithms (a few yen drop).
End-of-week adjustments ahead of Japan’s GDP release (16th)
Next Monday (the 16th) Japan’s Q4 GDP (first estimate) is due. If personal consumption shows weakness, expectations for BoJ rate hikes may fade, contributing to yen weakness. On Friday the 13th, there may be position adjustments in anticipation of this risk.
The “Sell the Fact” pitfall
Regardless of the election results, there are times when the market exhausts its catalysts on Monday morning and sells off after initial gains. Be wary of “sell the fact” moves like “rally after ruling party victory, followed by a sharp drop.”Be cautious and, for safety, wait to determine the direction after the Tokyo market’s mid-session rate (9:55) passes before entering.
Summary
Next week will be driven by two stages: the “gap created by Monday morning election results”andthe “Wednesday night U.S. CPI”that together determine the trend.First, check Monday’s opening rate and see if the 156 level can be held; this will be the litmus test for attempting an 158 challenge afterward.
Dashboard_Harmonics_v5 Also see below
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/75300?via=toppage_recentViewed