Are you paying attention with interest, or just watching?
As of Tuesday, February 3, 2026, based on the XAUUSD (Gold) H1 chart, here is the forecast and analysis for the coming week (until around February 10).
Currently, the gold market is in the midst of historic volatility. From the all-time high recorded at the end of January (around $5,595), it has experienced a nearly $1,000 plunge in just a few days, and the chart structure has changed dramatically.
1. XAUUSD (H1) Forecast: February 3–February 10
In the short term, we predict a move characterized by an autonomous rebound following a sharp drop, forming a range or a base.
Main scenario:Movement within a wide range of $4,400–$4,800
Weekly price action image:In the early part of the week, we will test the support around $4,400. After that, as a correction from oversold conditions, expect a rebound toward $4,700–$4,760 (near the 21-day moving average). However, since the rising trendline has been fully broken, upside pressure is likely to remain weak and the upper levels may be heavy.
2. Technical analysis and rationale
① Break in the trendline
The lower bound of the rising channel that had been in place since the second half of 2025 was decisively broken on the January 30 plunge. This indicates a transition from a months-long "buy the dips" phase to a "sell the rallies" or "correction" phase.
② Key horizontal levels (milestones)
Resistance (upper): $4,740 / $4,800 / $4,930
The 20-day moving average sits near $4,742, and unless this is clearly surpassed, the bears will remain dominant. $4,800 is a psychological milestone and a past breakout point.
Support (lower): $4,400 / $4,250
$4,405overlaps with the 50-day moving average and important Fibonacci lines, forming a strong support zone (area where buy orders accumulate). Breaking below here could target a lower level around $4,000.
③ Indicator status
RSI (Relative Strength Index):After reaching oversold levels (below 30) on H1 and H4, it has rebounded toward the midline (around 45–50). It is accumulating energy, awaiting the next economic data release.
Bollinger Bands:The bands have expanded significantly (from squeeze to expansion), indicating the price moving out of the band. Currently, there is a tendency to revert toward the inside of -2σ (mean reversion).
3. Fundamental factors (background)
The plunge is underpinned by the following factors.
FRB chair nomination:Speculation of Kevin Warsh, regarded as hawkish (likely to push for rate hikes), contributing to a stronger US dollar.
Margin requirements tightening:The CME raised margin requirements for gold futures, triggering forced position liquidations.
Profit-taking:A pullback close to a bubble-like adjustment after overheating above $5,500.
This week's key indicators
US ISM Manufacturing index / Employment data:If these reinforce the strength of the US dollar, gold could face additional downside pressure.
Summary and strategy
This week, the basic strategy is either a short-term rebound targeting around $4,400, or wait for a return move toward $4,800 and then sell on the way back. Since the trend has been broken, this is no longer a market where simply holding will push prices higher; short-term trading around the key levels is recommended.