(Self-made forecast USDJPY 2/2～7)
Monday, February 2, 2026A new week begins.
Currently, USD/JPY is at a critical phase where expectations for the Fed to cut rates early and cautiousness over Japan's policy adjustments intersect. From a developer’s perspective, I’ve summarized this week’s analysis and forecast with a focus on the H1 (1-hour chart).
1. Forecast, Analysis, and Rationale
Main Scenario for This Week: Range-bound environment with favorable “pullback buying” from 154.50 to 156.80 JPY
Analysis:
Last week’s stronger-than-expected US economic data has pushed back expectations for early Fed rate cuts, keeping dollar buying pressure. On the other hand, there is substantial resistance in the upper 156 yen area (around last year’s highs), and breaking through this level will likely require a strong jobs report this week.
Rationale:
Ren the widening US-Japan rate differential:US 10-year yields are stable around the 4.2% level, making carry trades selling yen and buying dollars easier to sustain.
Real demand buying:Early February, domestic importers’ dollar procurement demand around the "Gotōbi" (go-to-day) supports the downside in the first half of the week.
Technical convergence:In the H1 chart, the 200-period moving average (200MA) is rising, making around 154.50 a strong support level.
2. Japan Time: Time Zones, Forecasts, and Rationale
When trading on H1 or building EA logic, it is important to consider time-of-day volatility characteristics.
| Time Zone (Japan Time) | Forecast / Trend | Rationale |
| Tokyo Market (09:00 - 15:00) | Firm, with dollar strength toward the fixing | Real dollar demand (especially Monday around the Gotōbi) dominates. Correlation with the Nikkei tends to strengthen. |
| European Session (16:00 - 20:00) | Trend reversal or acceleration | Liquidity increases with London session; counter-moves to the Tokyo flow (fake moves) are common during this period. |
| NY Session (21:00 - 02:00) | Trend confirmation / sudden moves | Key US indicators are released. This week, ISM and payroll data may cause over 100 pips of volatility on the H1 level. |
3. Weekly Forecast Data (Mon 2/2 – Sat 2/7)
Correlation of target prices with important events for this week.
| Date | Forecast Range (Low - High) | Notable Events / Key Points |
| 2/2 (Mon) | 154.80 - 155.80 | ISM Manufacturing Index. Week-start trend formation. |
| 2/3 (Tue) | 155.00 - 156.00 | Nothing particular. “Tuesday continuity” likely to follow Monday’s trend. |
| 2/4 (Wed) | 154.50 - 156.20 | ADP Employment Change. A leading indicator ahead of Friday’s NFP. |
| 2/5 (Thu) | 155.20 - 156.50 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Confirms dollar strength for the day. |
| 2/6 (Fri) | 153.80 - 157.00 | US Employment Data. The week's biggest volatility. Large swings possible. |
| 2/7 (Sat) | 155.50 - 156.00 | Position adjustments ahead of NY close. |
4. USDJPY (H1) Technical Analysis and Recommended Indicators
Recommended Indicator Settings
Hull Moving Average (HMA):* Period: 21 or 55
Usage:Effective for early detection of trend reversals on H1. Use the color change of the HMA as a trigger, then filter with the MACD described below.
MACD (12, 26, 9):
Usage:Confirm trend direction relative to the 0 line. When combined with RSI, identify divergences to enable early detection of a ceiling near 156 yen.
ZigFibo (ZigZag + Fibonacci):
Usage:Apply Fibonacci from the most recent swing low to high and look for a rebound at the 61.8% retracement (around 154.50).
Harmonic Patterns:
Usage:Currently watching for Gartley or Bat patterns on the H1 level. If a D point (reversal point) completes near 156.20, it will be a strong sell signal.
Engineer’s advice:
During this week’s NFP release, spreads may widen dramatically, and price can move more than 50 pips within minutes without waiting for a confirmation on the H1 chart. If you’re running an EA, it is recommended to enable the “Pause New Entries on Friday after 21:00” logic.