【Scalping Verification Log】January 29 — Result of missing a shallow pullback, entered at a deep pullback
USD/JPY on January 29. On this day, the 60-minute chart showed an ongoing uptrend (MACD value above 0.05), so
I traded scalping with the basic strategy of “fixed buy entries, waiting for a pullback on the 5-minute chart.”
Missed the shallow pullbacks
What I focused on first on the 5-minute chart was shallow pullbacks around 38.2%–50%.
Originally, if a rebound had occurred here, it would have been a candidate for entry.
But on this day, I was doing other tasks, and by the time I looked at the screen, it had already passed…
Completely miss-timed
Reason I didn’t chase it aggressively
A common mistake is “buying because you’re late.”
In scalping, if you miss it by even a little, you skip it.
Because jumping in at the last moment greatly reduces the win rate.
Therefore, this time I gave up entries at the shallow levels (23.6%, 38.2%).
What I watched instead was the “deep pullback zone”
Here is the current 5-minute chart.
The 38.2% and 50% levels have already been passed. So the next points to watch were
61.8%
78.6%
Just these two.
To be honest, opportunities to go this deep aren’t frequent.
But that’s precisely why,
・When they appear, they’re strong
・If the conditions align, you can decide without hesitation
This is one of those points.
Actual entry decision
Price entered long around 61.8% and rebounded briefly, so I closed the position quickly.
Then it fell to 78.6%, so I entered long without hesitation.
After that, I exited this position for a quick profit as well.
Although it subsequently moved sharply higher,
such movements can’t be predicted, so in scalping the basic strategy is to close quickly and exit.
Deep pullbacks are not something you “go after”
What I realized again this time is that 61.8% and 78.6% are not places you chase every time.
・Opportunities are scarce
・There are days when they truly don’t come
・But when they do, they’re a chance
So I usually switch to the mode of “waiting for a deep pullback” when I’ve mainly missed shallow pullbacks
and use that approach accordingly.
Summary: The difference comes from actions after missing the entry
The main lesson of the day was that even if you miss the entry point,
・Don’t rush
・Don’t chase
・Wait for the next opportunity
This is the choice I was able to make.
Trading isn’t about taking the perfect move; it’s about not making sloppy moves.
Deep pullbacks are rare.
But it’s worth preparing so you can judge when they occur.
P.S.
The Fibonacci on the chart used in the article is from a self-made automatic drawing tool I built.
I made it to save the effort of drawing by hand, so I can focus more of my brain on chart analysis and waiting.
If you’re like me and find line drawing tedious or don’t know where to draw, it’s free to use, so feel free to try it.