市場構造を再定義する

Hello. This is 2pay.

This time I will talk about the ideas necessary to win.

This is also related to the new EA I published recently.

① The market is largely efficient.

Dow Theory expresses that “prices discount all events,” meaning that fundamental information, geopolitical risks, psychology, etc., are reflected in prices. But if we go further, it can be interpreted as “events are priced in as soon as they are reflected in price.” After a price has been set, we cannot predict its direction.

The idea of those who claim that trading based on fundamentals or technicals does not work lies here.

Even if moving averages are upward-sloping or there is a golden cross, expecting the next bar to rise because of that will converge to a win rate of 50% (no expectancy).

The conclusion is market efficiency hypothesis. Those who try to predict or guess will drop out here.

The market is efficient, and even if there are distortions, they are quickly corrected and the market returns to a market-neutral state.

First, this is the premise of market structure.

② There are small distortions.

If markets were perfectly efficient, successful investors would not be born.

However, many successful investors do exist.

Some disappear in an instant, but others continue to perform well for over a decade. They have learned patterns to keep winning in any era.

Extracting distortions and picking them up correctly becomes the pattern.

What is meant by “distortion” can be recognized only by comparing it to many normal states.

Just as there is no shadow on the back of an object when there is no light, there is a yin-yang relationship.

The point is how to define normal and how to judge abnormal.

For example, in ① I said that price has no predictive power, but under special conditions, there is a tendency to move in one direction.

To be prone to move means, for example, that from a neutral state (50%), there is a tendency to move in a determined direction with about 55–60% probability.

“In most cases, prices have no predictive power” is the normal state, while “under special circumstances they tend to move in one direction” indicates abnormality.

This is the biggest clue. Please limit the range you monitor due to some factor.

Many billionaires trade within restricted timeframes.

This is because they know that certain tendencies occur only at specific times.

Keeping trading records is originally to detect any sense of incongruity compared to usual trading.

The items to record each time should be organized and evaluated quantitatively (so they can be plotted on graphs later) as the ideal.

③ The essence of MTF is not scale.

According to Dow Theory, there are “three kinds of trends,” but the classification into “long-term,” “mid-term,” and “short-term” is not strictly correct as a description.

・Primary cycle: major trend (1 year to several years)

・Secondary cycle: secondary trend (3 weeks to 3 months)

・Minor cycle: minor trend (several hours to 3 weeks)

As above, minor cycles are defined down to several hours in scope.

Smaller swings do not fit Dow Theory’s definition of a trend (i.e., microstructure).

These three kinds of trends are formed by different large-scale investors.

・Primary: real demand and capital movement

・Secondary: duration and rebalancing

・Minor: speculation and discretion

The essential condition for a trend to continue is the duration of positions and ◆◆◆◆.

Extremely, investors in the primary class hold positions for years.

The longer-term investors have greater capital and do not easily close their positions, so the trend continues.

Also, while they are not closing their positions, price ranges stay fixed.

If it is disclosed that primary-class investors have bought a large amount of positions, the near-term low becomes a very strong support.

Right now, because actual demand forces are escaping before currency intervention (support has weakened), there is a higher risk of a mid- to long-term downward trend rather than a temporary decline.

The fall on 2026.1.23 is not due to an algorithm, so it should not be expected to converge in the short term.

“Dealers (human hands), yes. That’s the movement.”

I got sidetracked, but the point is the presence of investors behind the scenes matters more than time, so it is better to view trends (cycles) by the scale of those investors rather than by scales of time.

When it is said to be a trend, the message might be to focus on their cycles, i.e., their backgrounds, for better predictive accuracy. (In fact, cycle-based interpretations yield significant results.)

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It looks like this could become long, so I will stop here for now.

I hope the nuance of “redefining market structure” is conveyed roughly.

In truth, I would need around 20,000 characters to systematically explain each item, but it’s not something suitable for a free column, so I’ve written only the key points.

Know the essence of the market → Find distortions → Investigate what causes distortions → Form a hypothesis and prove the effectiveness of factors → Translate into the EA logic

What I was doing before production would be listed step by step as above.

Even if you don’t translate it into an EA’s logic, it is something you should do as a pre-verification with discretion as well.

In one sentence, this is a message: those who want to keep winning should verify things.

Thank you for reading.