【Path to Dream_FX_main currencies_market environment awareness and memo_20260125】

January 25, Sunday.

Hello.

It is a clear day.
In the South Kanto region, it feels slightly chilly due to the strong wind.

Today as well, I am continuing to glare intently.

Well then, starting from 4:40 PM on Friday
with a rate check
USD/JPY formed an bearish candle.

However, afterward, it pulled back
and at 25:00 Japan time, when the US market opened,
there was a rate check from the New York Fed
and it has fallen sharply below.

This is called the Japan-US coordinated rate check.

Starting Monday onwards, will real trading come?
I plan to watch quietly.


Now, let's confirm.
The figures are at the timing of the daily candle close.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 13th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 26th / 8 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 1st / 1
Weekly volatility: 257 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 56th / 56 or
Daily: 1st cycle, 5th / 5
4HC: 5th or 1st cycle, 30th / 30

as interpreted.

4HC could be the first possibility as well.
When I said that,
that possibility has become more likely.

If the weekly chart also switches,
there is a scenario where it rises toward around 1.2.

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20260125_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/UVZyEhyv0iU
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 17th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 19th / 18
Weekly volatility: 360 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 34th / 27
4HC: 3rd cycle, 30th / 27

as interpreted.

Due to the Japan-US coordinated rate check
it is expected to drop about 350 pips
and become a strong yen trend.

Because of this, upside may become heavy
and a range-bound or downward momentum is expected to accelerate.

In the characteristics of the Half Primary Cycle (HPC)
there is potential for a sharp decline,
so I would like to look for selling on rallies.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 13th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 12th / 12
Weekly volatility: 305 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 5th / 5
4HC: 1st cycle, 30th / 30

as interpreted.

Weekly starting point seems different from EUR/USD.
If the US dollar is sold
and interest rates fall, it would be a good result for the US government.


After all, I think what we are watching is the mid-term elections.


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 18th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 26th / 26
Weekly volatility: 413 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 34th / 34
4HC: 3rd cycle, 66th / 63

as interpreted.

Given dollar weakness and yen strength, cross yen will be caught in a squeeze.


Therefore, it seems to be an unsuitable currency pair.

Since volatility tends to move toward the larger one,
I would like to pay attention to future USD/JPY.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 18th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 25th / 25
Weekly volatility: 422 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 56th / 56
4HC: 5th cycle, 40th / 18

as interpreted.

If USD/JPY declines
future highs would not be updated.

Daily chart is viewed as HPC,
so it may form a large bearish candle?


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 10th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 23rd / 23
Weekly volatility: 379 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 56th / 56
4HC: 4th or 1st, 62nd / 59

as interpreted.

With the rise of AUD/USD and the drop of USD/JPY, it is a tug-of-war.


However, since USD/JPY has more movement
it seems to be following it.

The daily chart is considered to be closing timing, so
for a while, bearish candles may occur.

Perhaps the same as USD/JPY?

****************************
20260125_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/UVZyEhyv0iU
*****************************
 

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US10Y 4.231 -0.47%
DJI 49098 points -285
US500 -0.06%
WTI 61.015 USD
Nikkei 225 53846 JPY +157
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