The power to chase higher prices measured by the increase/decrease in new high numbers

The力 to push higher is weakening.

On a stock-by-stock basis, the strength to buy up high prices without regard to the highs is shown in the number of new highs. Over the past six weeks,

we looked at the average daily high price of the Nikkei 225 on a weekly basis and

the number of new highs.

Naturally, especially since the January highs, the decrease in the number of new highs has led to a decline in stock prices.

As a data point to gauge short-term upside momentum, there is no other effective indicator besides the number of new highs. The momentum will return to a three-digit level for the number of new highs

before we can expect the upside to recover.

Otherwise, it is difficult to chase higher prices.

High price average Number of new highs

~12/16    19,339    　 208

~12/23    19,482     123

~12/30    19,366       78

~01/06    19,560     229

~01/13    19,371      119

~01/20    19,107       40

At the weekend, the one-month average stock price is 19,274 yen.

Although it is gradually declining, a close above the one-month moving average is

the minimum condition for the stock price to turn back to an upside trend.

Beyond that, it depends on whether there is still the ability to buy up high-priced individual stocks.

Outflows from overseas investors are also slowing

In the second week of January, overseas investors (cash + futures) total

were only slightly negative (▲410 billion yen), marking the first net seller in two months since the

week of early November. It is important to note that unless overseas investors buy significantly more, Japanese stocks cannot rise, as the data shows.

Also, with the Bank of Japan buying ETFs, the supply-demand dynamic makes it harder for prices to fall,

but recently, including overseas investor activity, upside potential has become harder to chase. We are looking at a range-trading centered around 19,000

yen ±300 yen.

Trump’s policies across the economy/trade, diplomacy/defense, and overall stance

will determine whether they positively impact our country, which is not a given.

The conclusion weighs on stock prices as well.

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