Is the recent yen depreciation actually caused by government bonds?
This is the talk that no matter how many indicators you add, the market won’t tell you.
? What is the Trade Idea Lab?
FX is not about “sense” or “talent.”
It’s a game of reading who is pushing how hard, where, and how long.to read the situation.
In the Trade Idea Lab,
✔ The “real material” behind the news
✔ The information that professionals see but that does not appear on charts
✔ The decision framework to avoid forcing entriesin terms even FX beginners can understandis explained.
From the FX that drains you with a vague sense that it will go up,
to trading that leans with the market trendas the movement.
※ All articles are written based on actual market conditions and real-world examples.
Hello, I’m the cat owner at Trade Idea Lab, a pro trader.
When I first started FX, I was the same. MACD, RSI, moving averages, Bollinger Bands… “I thought if I have all these, I’ll win for sure.”
But one day I realized something.
“Huh? I’m following indicators, but I’m not winning at all?”
Today, I’ll talk about the very essence of why that happens.
What moves the market isn’t lines
First, the premise.
What moves the market isn’tindicators or candlestick patterns.
What moves it is the flow of money.
To be more precise,
- where money leaves from
- where it flows to
- who is taking positions and for what reasons
these things.
And this informationis not shown on any indicator.
The unseen world of the sovereign bond market right now
Recently, yields on Japanese and U.S. Treasuries have both risen sharply.
Beginners might think “rising rates mean the economy is improving,” but in reality it’s the complete opposite signal.
When Treasury yields rise, it meansTreasury bonds are being sold. In other words,
the market is sensing, “Aren’t this country’s bonds a bit scary?”
This is the key point.
No one is declaring, “We will sell.”
But the yields tell the whole story.
A world that indicators will never reveal
No matter how much you zoom into the charts,
- how far the Bank of Japan can endure
- what the Fed truly fears in their heart
- where big funds are looking for an exit
these are not visible at all.
Yet,when you look at the Treasury market, everything becomes visible.
For example, this time.
Behind the surface debate of “will rates rise or stay the same?” what the market is actually looking at is
“Is tightening no longer possible?”
That is the single point.
Why you lose if you don’t know fundamentals
Trading only with indicators yields this:
- You get swept up in sudden moves you don’t understand
- You keep getting caught by “fakeouts”
- Even when you win, you don’t know why you won
On the other hand, those who understand fundamentals can:
- Choose “not now” when appropriate
- Prepare before moves begin
- Keep emotions out of price movements
This isn’t so much a difference in technique asa difference in perspective, right?
? Trade beyond the indicators
At go go jungle,
we organize a method to build trading decisions based on informationthat professionals see but doesn’t appear on charts.
Treasuries, interest rates, options, futures.
How to apply those to FX.
The market quietly gives you the answer
The market isn’t kind.
It won’t tell you, “Next time it will go up.”
But,
If you watch the Treasury market, interest rates, and the flow of funds (we call it location information), you’ll often find hints like “that side is dangerous” or “this is the real move,” placed quietly.
Whether you notice it or not.
Whether you increase the number of indicators,or raise your perspective to a higher level.
The choice is yours.