[Resurrection?] Bitcoin price again breaks 100,000 yen! From the plunge on the 18th, is the rebound perhaps...
Hello everyone, Zaoriku! I’ve never played Dragon Quest, but I do know the revival spell@xi10jun1.
Bitcoin has once again broken through 100,000 yen, hasn’t it? It may be due to China calming down and some latecomers buying as well.
It would be nice if it continues to rise gradually like this…
This Week’s Results (January 13–19, 2017)
First, as usual, the results. I will announce the changes first.
- Last week (up to Jan 12) assets: 59,716 yen
- This week (up to Jan 19) assets: 60,465 yen
- Change: +749 yen
Assets briefly exceeded 61,000 yen, but I kept taking losses as I tried to breakout of the range with trend-following trades…
But this week, since the uptrend continued, there were some profitable buying opportunities, and the assets managed to stay in positive territory. Let’s stabilize in the 61,000 yen range this week!
Bitcoin Market on January 14, 2017 (Chart time: 1h)
From the big drop on the 12th, it looks like a rebound is forming. A good shape.
The near-term bottom is likely 85,496 yen. If we break below this, it may go deeper.
However, due to the sharp drop, there isn’t much buying momentum right now.
Bitcoin Market on January 15, 2017 (Chart time: 1h)
Prices seem heavy, slowly drifting downward.
I’m not very good at this kind of market. I have no idea whether it will go up or down.
In the near term, it looks like selling signals. I would like to short, but it’s better not to force positions here. When similar situations occurred before, I incurred big losses from unnecessary trades…
Bitcoin Market on January 16, 2016 (Chart time: 1h)
You’d think it would drop, but prices are consolidating at the lower end.
In such markets, two strategies seem possible:
- If the price moves up after failing to rise: sell
- If the price holds at the bottom and then rises: buy
For the 16th, the latter “bottom holds and then rises” seems workable, so buying is possible.
Bitcoin Market on January 17, 2017 (Chart time: 1h)
From yesterday’s chart, it’s become a more refined range, but since it broke above the 14th high, buying is good.
A breakout from a range that updates a high or a low tends to be strong, after all.
It’s not easy to imagine a big decline from this shape, but vigilance is important. Set proper stop orders firmly.
Bitcoin Market on January 18, 2017 (Chart time: 1h)
And once again breaks through 100,000 yen! This chart brings a sense of nostalgia!
Even though breaking the milestone might invite renewed selling pressure, at this point there doesn’t seem to be any sign of that.
Will it chase higher from here?
Bitcoin Market on January 19, 2017 (Chart time: 1h)
However, on the night of the 18th, price plummeted. The lowest price that day was 93,060 yen.
I wondered what happened, but Tech Bureau CEO Takao Asayama posted a tweet that seemed to be the cause (since embedding seems unavailable, see the link below).
Ah, so it was China after all… This is exactly the risk I’ve been writing about in my columns regarding exchanges!
After that, there wasn’t a continued decline; instead it rebounded and returned to the 100,000 yen range, which I find quite interesting.
For the moment, the near-term upper bound is 105,000 yen. If it breaks above this, an uptrend may begin; conversely, if it falls below 93,060 yen, a downtrend may begin.
Free Column: Are Exchange Risks Still Ahead?
In last week’s column’s free section, I warned about the Bitcoin situation in China! It came so soon…
If there is further news or if new breaches by exchanges are discovered, there is a risk of another sharp decline. For BTCFX, a drop could be profitable in selling, but given the rebound toward the 19th, you should stay vigilant.
Bitcoin markets are still in a crucible state, so practice strict risk management!
Also, I have written this series in 1-hour intervals up to now, but soon I will cover other timeframes (1–5 minutes) as well. I’m considering using GIFs or YouTube, so the column format will continue to evolve.
Stay tuned!
Ending Corner: Shopping with Bitcoin!
Actually, the overseas e-commerce site "FANCY" allows you to purchase products with Bitcoin! It may cost a bit for shipping, but there are stylish items you won’t find in Japan.
For how to use FANCY, please refer to this blog post.
- →Explained: How to create an account, register, set up, and purchase on FANCY | Investor Jun of the Yotori Generation
- →How to purchase items on FANCY with Bitcoin (payment) | Investor Jun of the Yotori Generation
※This is free content up to here. The following is detailed analysis and future outlook, so it will be paid content. If you’re interested, please subscribe!
