What is the possibility of reaching 20,000,000 yen from 100,000 yen in one year?
Today I’m reporting interesting results.
Conclusion: is there a 99.8% chance to reach from 100,000 to 20,000,000?
Feels like no way, right? I think so too.
Using the entry logic of the White Tiger half-discretion EA for the past year,
I calculated the losing streak probability set to RR 1:1 for both selling and buying, by brain-deadly methods.
1,258 times / per year
Consecutive losses | Frequency | Probability of occurrence | Average 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 consecutive loss | 46 | 3.66% | every 27.3 trades |
| 2 consecutive losses | 11 | 0.87% | every 114.4 trades |
| 3 consecutive losses | 6 | 0.48% | every 209.7 trades |
| 4 consecutive losses | 3 | 0.24% | every 419.3 trades |
| 5 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1,258 trades |
| 6 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 7 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 8 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 9 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1,258 trades |
“Please make it possible to use Martingale.”
Martingale—I’ve never done it and heard it has a bad reputation, right? But
it’s not good to ignore it, and it would be interesting if the image of Martingale could be overturned.
So I considered it.
And thinking about Martingale from the data, indeed 5 consecutive losses or more realistically occur twice.
However, the total probability is 0.16%. It’s a number that could possibly not occur this year as well.
First, let’s consider the most favorable scenario.
Suppose margin is 100,000 and we start with 0.02 Lot.
This number corresponds to the lot that becomes zero after six consecutive losses. Since the probability of six consecutive losses occurring at the start is low, you can push early milestones.
And for every additional 200,000 increase, raise by 0.01 lot, and after completing 1,258 trades,
from 18,000,000 to 22,000,000, with a median base of 20,000,000
those numbers become.
This is the favorable way of thinking, but if you can aim for 20,000,000 from 100,000, it seems like a worthwhile expected value to attempt.
Of course you could aim for it as is, but even if you increase defense here, the original expected value remains high, so you should be able to accumulate enough profit, and perhaps even more than that.
What should you do to increase defense?
• Change selling and buying sides according to trends and ranges
• Withdraw profit at 1,000,000 or 5,000,000, and restart
• Increase margin to endure more consecutive losses
• Lower the Lot to endure more consecutive losses
There are many other possibilities as well.
So, this experience has dramatically changed my impression of Martingale.
I’m grateful to the purchasers once again. Thank you very much.
In the past, I relied only on horizontal lines and price action,
and traded in a so-called intuitive way,
accumulating wins.
My teachers and peers often said, “Your sense is amazing.”
As I continued to think about how anyone could use this,
I aimed to verbalize and recreate the sense itself, embedding the ability into the methodology,
the semi-discretionary EA “White Tiger.”
Having learned that good entries can lead to anything,
I built it with the motto that entries account for about 80% of success.
【Semi-discretionary EA White Tiger】
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64612
