What is the possibility of reaching from 100,000 yen to 20,000,000 yen in one year?
Today I am reporting that interesting results have come out.
Conclusion: Is there a 99.8% chance to reach from 100,000 to 20,000,000?
That sounds unlikely, doesn’t it? I think so too.
Using the entry logic of the White Tiger Half-Discretion EA for the past year
I calculated the win-streak probability set by brain-dead RR1:1 for both sell and buy sides.
1258 times / year
Consecutive Losses | Frequency | Occurrence Probability | Average 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 loss in a row | 46 | 3.66% | 27.3 times in 1 |
| 2 losses in a row | 11 | 0.87% | 114.4 times in 1 |
| 3 losses in a row | 6 | 0.48% | 209.7 times in 1 |
| 4 losses in a row | 3 | 0.24% | 419.3 times in 1 |
| 5 losses in a row | 1 | 0.08% | 1,258 times in 1 |
| 6 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 7 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 8 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 9 losses in a row | 1 | 0.08% | 1258 times in 1 |
[Make Martingale possible]
Martingale—I’ve never done it, and the reputation isn’t good, I know
but not thinking about it isn’t good, and if the image of Martingale gets overturned, wouldn’t that be interesting?
So I contemplated it.
And from the data, Martingale, indeed, more than 5 consecutive losses realistically occurs twice.
But the probability is only 0.16% in total. It’s a number that could possibly not occur this year as well.
First, let’s consider the most favorable scenario.
Suppose the margin is 100,000 yen and we start with 0.02 lots.
This number is a lot that becomes zero after 6 consecutive losses. Since the probability of six consecutive losses occurring at the start is low, we should attack initially.
And every time the balance increases by 200,000 yen, raise by 0.01 lots, and after handling 1258 trades
from 18,000,000 to 22,000,000, the median base becomes 20,000,000.
That’s the number.
This is the favorable way of thinking, but if you can aim for 20,000,000 starting from 100,000, I thought it’s a worthwhile gamble with a favorable expectation.
Of course, aiming for it as is would be fine, but even if you strengthen the defense here, the original expected value remains high and you should be able to accumulate substantial profits, and perhaps even more than that.
[What can be done to increase the defense?]
• Change buy and sell sides according to trends and ranges
• Withdraw at profits of 1,000,000 or 5,000,000 and restart
• Increase margin to endure more consecutive losses
• Lower the lot to endure more losses
There are various other options as well.
So, this was an event that significantly changed the impression of Martingale.
My gratitude anew to the purchasers. Thank you very much.
In the past, I relied on horizontal lines and price action alone,
to perform what you’d call intuitive trading,
and I kept stacking wins.
My teachers and peers often said, “Your sense is amazing.”
As I continued to develop something that anyone could use,
and to translate that sense into language so it could be reproduced, what was created is
the half-discretion EA “White Tiger.”
Having learned that good entries can lead to anything,
I built it with the aspiration that 80% of entries would be decisive.
[Half-Discretion EA White Tiger]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64612
