Translate the below html to English, keep format html, the result is not in markdown code and not break line, convert standard decode before translate: １年で１０万円から２０００万円に到達する可能性は？ Translation: What is the possibility of reaching 2,000,000 yen from 100
Today I am reporting because the results were interesting.
Conclusion, is there a 99.8% chance to reach from 100,000 to 20,000,000?
No, that sounds unrealistic, right? I think so too.
Using the entry logic of the White Tiger Half-Discretion EA for the past year,
I calculated the consecutive loss probability set with RR 1:1 for both sell and buy in a brain-dead manner.
1258 times / year
Loss Streak | Occurrences | Probability of Occurrence | Average Until Occurrence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 loss in a row | 46 | 3.66% | every 27.3 trades |
| 2 losses in a row | 11 | 0.87% | every 114.4 trades |
| 3 losses in a row | 6 | 0.48% | every 209.7 trades |
| 4 losses in a row | 3 | 0.24% | every 419.3 trades |
| 5 losses in a row | 1 | 0.08% | every 1,258 trades |
| 6 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 7 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 8 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 9 losses in a row | 1 | 0.08% | every 1,258 trades |
[Make Martingale possible]
Martingale, I’ve never tried it and I know it has a bad reputation,
but it’s not good to avoid thinking, and it would be interesting if my image of Martingale is overturned.
So I contemplated it.
And from the data, Martingale shows that five consecutive losses or more realistically occur twice.
However, the probability is only 0.16% in total. It’s a number that might not occur this year as well.
First, let’s consider the most favorable scenario.
Suppose we start with a margin of 100,000 yen and 0.02 lots.
This number corresponds to a lot where a six-loss streak would bring the account to zero. Since the probability of six consecutive losses occurring early is low, the initial move can be aggressive.
And as the balance increases by 200,000 yen, increase by 0.01 lots; after handling 1,258 trades,
from 18,000,000 to 22,000,000 yen, with a median basis around 20,000,000 yen
that would be the number.
This is a favorable way of thinking, but if you can aim for 20,000,000 yen from 100,000 yen, it seems worth taking on the challenge given the expected value.
Of course, aiming directly is fine, but even if you increase defensive strength here, the original expected value remains high, so you should be able to accumulate substantial profit, and perhaps more.
[What can be done to increase defensive strength?]
• Align with trend or range and switch between selling and buying on both sides
• Withdraw profits at 1,000,000 or 5,000,000 and restart
• Increase margin to withstand more consecutive losses
• Lower lots to withstand more consecutive losses
There are many possibilities.
Anyway, this was a moment where the impression of Martingale changed quite a bit.
Thanks again to the purchasers. Thank you.
In the past, I relied only on horizontal lines and price action,
engaged in what we might call a intuition-based trading,
and accumulated wins.
My mentor and fellow students often told me, “Your sense is amazing.”
As I continued to think about how to make this usable for everyone,
I reduced the aspect of sense into something that can be verbalized and reproduced,
the semi-discretionary EA “White Tiger.”
Having learned that good entries can lead to anything,
I built it with the idea that entry accuracy would be 80%.
[Semi-discretionary EA White Tiger]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64612
