What is the possibility to reach from 100,000 yen to 20,000,000 yen in one year?
Today I’m reporting some interesting results.
Conclusion: the potential to reach from 100,000 to 20,000,000 is 99.8%?
No, that sounds unlikely, right? I think so too.
Using the entry logic of the White Tiger half-discretion EA for the past year
I calculated the consecutive-loss probability by setting it brain-dead with RR 1:1 for both sell and buy.
1258 times / year
Consecutive losses | Times | Occurrence probability | Average every how many times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 consecutive loss | 46 | 3.66% | every 27.3 trades |
| 2 consecutive losses | 11 | 0.87% | every 114.4 trades |
| 3 consecutive losses | 6 | 0.48% | every 209.7 trades |
| 4 consecutive losses | 3 | 0.24% | every 419.3 trades |
| 5 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 trades |
| 6 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 7 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 8 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 9 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 trades |
[Please make martingale possible]
Martingale, I’ve never done it and the reputation isn’t great, I think,
but not thinking about it is not good, and it would be interesting if the image of martingale could be overturned.
So I reflected on it.
And thinking about martingale from the data, indeed five consecutive losses or more occur realistically twice.
However, the probability is a total of 0.16%. It’s a number that might not occur this year.
First, let’s consider the most convenient favorable scenario.
Suppose we start with 100,000 in margin and 0.02 lot.
This number is the lot that becomes zero after six consecutive losses. Since the likelihood of six consecutive losses in the initial move is low, we take an aggressive initial move.
And for every additional 20,000, increase by 0.01 lot, and after 1258 trades
from 18,000,000 to 22,000,000, with the median base at 20,000,000
that would be the figure.
This is the favorable way of thinking, but if you can target 20,000,000 from 100,000, it seems worth the challenge with good expectancy.
Of course, aiming straight for it is fine, but even if you increase defense here, the original expectancy is high enough to accumulate substantial profit, and perhaps even more is possible.
[What should be done to increase defense?]
• Change selling and buying sides according to trend and range
• Withdraw when profits reach 1,000,000 or 5,000,000 and restart
• Increase margin to withstand more consecutive losses
• Lower the Lot to withstand more consecutive losses
There are many other possibilities as well.
So that was an event that significantly changed the impression of martingale.
To the purchasers, I am sincerely grateful. Thank you.
In the past, I relied only on horizontal lines and price action,
performing what you could call intuitive trading,
and accumulating wins.
My teachers and fellow students often said, “Your sense is amazing.”
After continuing to think about making this usable for anyone,
and distilling the sense to language so it can be reproduced,
the semi-discretionary EA “White Tiger.”
Having experienced that good entries can make anything work,
I created it with the belief that entry accuracy is about 80%.
[Semi-discretionary EA White Tiger]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64612
