I can translate the text inside the HTML while preserving the HTML format. The decoded content to translate is: "１年で１０万円から２０００万円に到達する可能性は？" Translation to English (keeping HTML structure): What is the possibility of reaching 20,000,000 yen from 100,000
Today I’m reporting some interesting results.
In conclusion, is there a 99.8% chance to reach from 100,000 to 20,000,000 yen?
That sounds unrealistic, right? I think so too.
Using the entry logic of the Hokaku Hand-Guide EA, I calculated the loss-streak probabilities for last year’s year in a brain-dead setting of RR 1:1 for both sell and buy.
1258 times / year
Consecutive losses | Occurrences | Probability of occurrence | Average every how many times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 consecutive loss | 46 | 3.66% | every 27.3 times |
| 2 consecutive losses | 11 | 0.87% | every 114.4 times |
| 3 consecutive losses | 6 | 0.48% | every 209.7 times |
| 4 consecutive losses | 3 | 0.24% | every 419.3 times |
| 5 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 times |
| 6 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 7 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 8 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 9 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 times |
[Want to be able to use Martingale]
Martingale — I hadn’t done it before, and the reputation isn’t good, I know,
but thinking it through isn’t bad, and wouldn’t it be interesting if the Martingale image could be overturned?
So I contemplated it.
And considering Martingale from the data, indeed, five consecutive losses or more realistically happen twice.
However, the probability is only 0.16% in total. It’s a number that could even not occur this year.
First, let’s consider the most favorable scenario.
Suppose the margin is 100,000 yen and we start at 0.02 lot.
This number becomes zero at six consecutive losses. Since the initial six-loss occurrence probability is low, we can attack initially.
And every time the capital increases by 200,000 yen, we raise by 0.01 lot, so after completing 1258 trades
from 18,000,000 to 22,000,000 yen, the median basis would be 20,000,000 yen
that’s the number.
This is the most favorable way of thinking, but if you can aim for 20,000,000 yen from 100,000 yen, I thought it’s a worthwhile expectancy to challenge.
Of course you could just aim as is, but increasing defense here will raise the original expected value sufficiently to accumulate profits, and perhaps even more.
[What should be done to increase defense?]
• Change selling and buying sides according to trend and range
• Withdraw profits at 1,000,000 and 5,000,000, then restart
• Increase margin to withstand more consecutive losses
• Lower the lot to withstand more consecutive losses
There are various possibilities.
So, this was an event that significantly changed the impression of Martingale.
My sincere thanks again to the buyers. Thank you very much.
In the past, I relied only on horizontal lines and price action,
and traded with what you might call an intuitive sense
and accumulated wins.
From the instructor and fellow practitioners, I was often told, “Your sense is amazing.”
As I worked to make this usable for anyone,
to verbalize and reproduce that sense, I distilled the sense into something that could be replicated,
the semi-discretionary EA “Hokaku” (Shiroko).
Having learned that if the entry is good, everything can follow,
I created it with the slogan that entry accounts for 80% of success.
[Semi-discretionary EA Shirko]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64612
