What is the possibility to reach from 100,000 yen to 20,000,000 yen in one year?
Today I am reporting results because they are interesting.
Conclusion: Is there a 99.8% chance to reach from 100,000 to 20,000,000?
It feels ridiculous, right? I think so too.
Using the entry logic of the White Tiger Semi-Discretionary EA for last year’s year,
I calculated the consecutive loss probability set with RR 1:1 for both selling and buying, as if brain-dead.
1258 times / year
Consecutive loss count | Occurrences | Probability of occurrence | Average every how many times |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 loss in a row | 46 | 3.66% | every 27.3 times |
| 2 losses in a row | 11 | 0.87% | every 114.4 times |
| 3 losses in a row | 6 | 0.48% | every 209.7 times |
| 4 losses in a row | 3 | 0.24% | every 419.3 times |
| 5 losses in a row | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 times |
| 6 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 7 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 8 losses in a row | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 9 losses in a row | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 times |
[Make Martingale possible]
Martingale—I’ve never tried it, and the reputation is bad, I think,
but not thinking about it is not good, and it would be interesting if the image of Martingale could be overturned.
So I examined it.
And thinking about Martingale from the data, indeed five consecutive losses or more occur realistically twice.
But the probability is only 0.16% in total. It’s a number that could potentially not occur this year as well.
First, let’s consider the most favorable scenario.
Let’s start with a margin of 100,000 yen and 0.02 lot.
This number becomes zero with six consecutive losses. Since the probability of six consecutive losses at the initial action is low, the initial action is aggressive.
And for every 20,000 yen increase, raise by 0.01 lot, and after completing 1258 trades,
from 18,000,000 to 22,000,000, with the median basis being 20,000,000.
This is a favorable way of thinking, but if you can aim for 20,000,000 from 100,000, it’s a worthwhile expectation value to try.
Of course, going for it as is could be good, but even if you increase the defense here, the original expectation is high, so you should be able to accumulate sufficient profit, and perhaps even more is possible.
[What would raise the defense?]
• Change selling and buying sides according to trend and range
• Withdraw profits at 1,000,000 and 5,000,000, then restart
• Increase margin to endure more consecutive losses
• Decrease lot to endure more consecutive losses
There are many possibilities.
Anyway, this was an event that significantly changed the impression of Martingale.
Thanks again to the purchasers. Thank you very much.
In the past, I relied on horizontal lines and price action alone,
and I traded in a so-called intuitive way,
accumulating wins.
From teachers and peers, I was often told, "Your sense is amazing."
As I kept thinking about how to make this usable for anyone,
I formed the sense into language and recreated it, embedding the sensory aspect into it,
The semi-discretionary EA "White Tiger."
If the entry is good, anything can happen, I learned from experience,
and I built it with the idea that entries account for 80% of the outcome.
[Semi-Discretionary EA White Tiger]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64612
