What is the possibility of reaching 1,000,000 yen to 20,000,000 yen in one year?
Today I’m reporting interesting results.
Conclusion: Is there a 99.8% chance to reach from 100,000 to 20,000,000?
Feels like no way, right? I think so too.
Using the entry logic of the White Tiger Half-Discretion EA for the past year,
I calculated the sequence of losses assuming RR 1:1 for both selling and buying, setting it mindlessly.
1258 times / year
Consecutive losses | Count | Probability of occurrence | Average interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 consecutive loss | 46 | 3.66% | every 27.3 times |
| 2 consecutive losses | 11 | 0.87% | every 114.4 times |
| 3 consecutive losses | 6 | 0.48% | every 209.7 times |
| 4 consecutive losses | 3 | 0.24% | every 419.3 times |
| 5 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 times |
| 6 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 7 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 8 consecutive losses | 0 | 0.00% | — |
| 9 consecutive losses | 1 | 0.08% | every 1258 times |
[Please make Martingale available]
Martingale, I haven’t done it before, and I’ve heard it has a bad reputation,
but thinking it through isn’t good, and it would be interesting if the impression of Martingale were overturned.
So I engaged in this examination.
And considering Martingale from the data, indeed two times of five consecutive losses or more occur realistically.
However, the probability is only 0.16% in total. It’s a number that could possibly not occur this year as well.
First, let me consider the most favorable scenario.
Suppose the margin is 100,000 yen and we start with 0.02 lot.
This number becomes zero at six consecutive losses in the lot size. Since the chance of six consecutive losses at the outset is low, the initial move can be aggressive.
And for every additional 200,000 yen, increase by 0.01 lot, so after completing 1,258 trades,
from 18,000,000 to 22,000,000, with a median base of 20,000,000
this is the figure.
This is the favorable way of thinking, but if you can aim for 20,000,000 from 100,000, it’s a worthwhile expected value worth challenging.
Of course, aiming for it directly is fine, but even if you improve defense here, the original expected value remains high, so you should be able to accumulate substantial profits, and perhaps more than that.
[What can be done to increase defense?]
- Change selling and buying sides according to trend and range
- Withdraw profits at 1,000,000 or 5,000,000 and restart
- Increase margin to endure more consecutive losses
- Lower the Lot to endure more consecutive losses
There are various approaches, I suppose.
So, this was an event that significantly changed the impression of Martingale.
I’d like to once again express gratitude to the buyers. Thank you very much.
In the past, I relied on horizontal lines and price action alone,
and engaged in so-called intuitive trading,
and accumulated wins.
From instructors and peers I was often told, “Your sense is amazing.”
As I continued to think about making this usable by anyone,
I distilled the sense into language so that it could be reproduced,
This is the Half-Discretion EA “White Tiger”.
I learned that good entries can lead to anything,
and I built it with the mindset that entries are eight-tenths of the success.
[Half-Discretion EA White Tiger]
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/indicators/64612
