Logic to aim from 10,000 yen to 50,000 yen in 3 days 공개!
Have you ever heard the word "expected value"?
What truly lies at the heart of trading is thisexpected value.
Expected value isthe foundation of trades with reproducibility; if past tests show no results, there is no reproducibility.
What exactly is this expected value?
Expected value is a numerical representation of the “future if you keep going.”
The most important thing in trading is not the result of each individual trade like “win” or “lose.” What you should really look at is,whether repeatedly applying the same rules will ultimately increase or decrease your capital.
That single idea is what we call “expected value.”
Expected value isthe average amount by which your capital increases (or decreases) per trade. For example, if you win once and your capital increases by 2,000 yen, and after 15 trials in total you increase by 15,000 yen, then the expected value is＋1,000 yen per trade. This does not mean you “win 1,000 yen every time.” It means that, considering both winning and losing instances,the longer you trade, the more your capital tends to grow on average.
A common misconception is thinking, “If win rate is high, you’ll win.” In reality, you can have a positive expected value and grow capital even with a low win rate; conversely, you can have a high win rate but a negative expected value and lose capital the more you trade. Expected value is a final judgment that includes win rate, profit per win, and loss per loss.
Moreover, only trades with a positive expected value can withstand aggressive management like compounding, lot increases, or automation. This is because, as you repeat, the results converge to the numeric expectation. Conversely, applying compounding to a method with negative expected value causes capital to decline faster than it grows.
In other words, expected value is
“After continuing this action, will my future self have more capital?”
and it provides a numerical answer to that question.
A trading approach that designs the number of trades, durability, and growth ahead of time and grows capital according to the numbers.
This mindset forms the foundation for reproducible trading
Now, let’s unravel the main logic.
First, this is the parameter value that has long been shared in the community
for the Hankyo (Byakko) EA, results over six months【July 1 – December 30】.
Risk-reward 1:1
Lot 0.03 fixed
Number of trades 842 trades (449 wins, 393 losses)
Win rate 53.33%
Spread setting enabled (refer to the exchange values used by Iku)
Margin 100,000 → 350,000 (profit 250,000)
If using an aggressive style, the margin can be increased by 0.01 Lot every 50,000, enabling further profits.
【If you can identify an upward trend this year, we focused on long only and achieved the following results.】
Number of trades 464 trades (267 wins, 197 losses)
Win rate 57.54%
Margin 100,000 → 400,000 (profit 300,000)
A 50,000 difference may seem small, but increasing Lot by 0.1 every 50,000 makes a substantial difference.
These are the figures for the Byakko EA under the risk-reward–focused settings.
Next is the Byakko EA’s win-rate–focused setting【Derivation】with parameter values driven by a win-rate focus.
In the same period, win rate is about 95%
By utilizing these two methods, we build the foundation for reproducibility and construct the logic.
First,
step 1【Aiming for streaks with win-rate-focused settings】
Margin 10,000, lot 0.04 (fixed)
Aiming for 10–15 consecutive wins at a 95% win rate
Success rate about 60%
(In actual operation in December, results were even better, but we calculated conservatively with small values due to variability)
10 consecutive wins doubles the capital.
From Byakko EA’s average entry count, roughly about 2 days
step 2【Aiming for 1:1 risk-reward with a risk-reward–focused approach】
In step 1,capital doubles or 2.5 times, then a trade with risk-reward 1:1 to 1.5 for one trade to aim for a return rate of 100% to 150%
Win rate calculated as the average of the risk-reward setting is 55%
When the trades finish, the margin will be either 0 or 50,000.
If you compute this as expected value
Risk-reward 1:4
Total win rate 33%
Expected value 65%
(If you put in an average of 10,000 per set, you get back 16,500)
(If you put in an average of 100,000 per set, you get back 165,000)
This is the kind of expected value.
I know it sounds bold coming from me, but please check various online sources to compare expected values. It may be an upward deviation, but these are six-month figures, so I don’t expect a sudden swing.
Also, I’ve posted histories in the Investment Navigator from late November to December, so please take a look if you’re interested.
This lengthy write-up is a hybrid logic born from questions from purchasers.
Thank you for reading to the end.
【Byakko EA – go on the attack to win? or win consistently?】
