Translate the text content inside the HTML to English while preserving the HTML structure. Also convert standard HTML entities or encoded text to plain characters before translating. Original: ３日で１万円から５万円を狙うロジック公開！ Translation: Publish the logic that ai
Have you ever heard the word "expected value"?
Precisely what makes a trade essential is thisexpected value.
Expected value isthe foundation of a reproducible trade,and anything that performs poorly in past verification has no reproducibility at all.
So, what is this expected value?
Expected value is a numerical representation of the future if you continue.
The most important thing in trading is not the result of one trade—win or lose. What you should really look at iswhether, if you repeat the same rules many times, your capital ultimately increases or decreases.
That one word is the "expected value."
Expected value isthe average amount your capital increases (or decreases) per trade. For example, if you "win once and gain 2,000 yen, and after 15 rounds you gain a total of 15,000 yen," then the expected value is+1,000 yen per trade. This does not mean you win 1,000 yen every time. Including both wins and losses,the longer you trade, the more your capital tends to grow on average.
A common misunderstanding is the belief that "higher win rate means you will win." In reality, you can have a positive capital even with a low win rate if the expected value is positive, and conversely you can lose capital if the win rate is high but the expected value is negative. Expected value is the final judgment that includes win rate, profit magnitude, and loss magnitude.
Moreover, only trades with a positive expected value will keep working well even with compounding, lot increases, or automation. This is because, as you repeat, the numbers converge as expected. Conversely, applying compounding to a method with negative expected value will cause capital to decrease faster than it increases.
Expected value can be rephrased as
「If I continue this action, will my future self have more capital?」
This is the question that the numbers answer for you.
A trade designed to go by count, durability, and growth from the start, and to grow capital according to the numbers.
This way of thinking is the foundation of reproducible trading.
Now, let's unravel the logic of the main topic.
First, this is the parameter value we have previously published in the community
for the White Tiger EA over six months [July 1 to December 30].
Risk-reward 1:1
Lot 0.03 fixed
Number of trades 842 (449 wins, 393 losses)
Win rate 53.33%
Spread setting enabled (refer to the exchange's price used by Ikura.)
Margin 100,000 → 350,000 (profit 250,000)
If using an aggressive style, increasing Lot by 0.01 every 50,000 margin is also possible for greater profit.
【For those who could identify a rising trend this year, the results were as follows with a long-only approach】
Number of trades 464 (267 wins, 197 losses)
Win rate 57.54%
Margin 100,000 → 400,000 (profit 300,000)
It may seem like a 50,000 difference, but increasing Lot by 0.1 every 50,000 makes a substantial difference.
This is the baseline figure of the White Tiger EA with risk-reward-focused settings.
Next, we move to the win-rate-focused settings of White Tiger EA【Derivative】as parameter values for win rate.
Over the same period, win rate is about 95%
Using these two methods, we build the foundation for reproducibility and construct the logic.
First,
step 1【Aiming for consecutive wins with win-rate-focused settings】
Margin 10,000; lot 0.04 (fixed)
Aiming for 10–15 consecutive wins with a win rate of 95%
Success rate about 60%
（In December's real operation, results were even better, but for fluctuations we calculated with a smaller value）
10 consecutive wins will double it.
From White Tiger EA’s average number of entries, roughly about 2 days
step 2【Aiming for 1:1 risk-reward with a single trade】
step 1If the margin doubles or 2.5 times, then trade with risk-reward 1:1 to 1.5 for 1 trade to achieve a 100% to 150% return.
The win rate, based on the average value of the risk-reward setting, is calculated at 55%
At the moment the trade ends, the margin will be either 0 or 50,000.
If we compute this as expected value
Risk-reward 1:4
Total win rate 33%
Expected value 65%
（On average, if one set deposits 10,000 yen, you get back 16,500 yen）
（On average, if one set deposits 100,000 yen, you get back 165,000 yen）
This is the expected value.
I know it sounds bold to say, but this is a pretty strong figure. Please look up various expected values online. It may be optimistic, but these numbers are taken over half a year, so I don’t expect such drastic fluctuations.
Also, for November to December, I have posted the history on Investment Navigator, so please take a look.
Sorry for the long explanation, but this logic is a hybrid logic born from a purchaser's question.
Thank you for reading to the end.
【White Tiger EA: Go on the offense to win? Or win steadily?】
