Publish the logic to aim from 10,000 yen to 50,000 yen in 3 days!
Have you ever heard the word expected value?
Exactly at the heart of trading lies thisexpected value.
Expected value isthe foundation of a reproducible trade; if past testing yields nothing, there is no reproducibility.
What is this expected value?
Expected value is a numeric representation of the “future if you continue.”
The most important thing in trading is not the result of a single trade like “win” or “lose.” What really matters is,when you repeat the same rules many times, does your capital end up increasing or decreasing.
That is succinctly expressed as “expected value.”
Expected value isthe average amount your capital increases (or decreases) per trade. For example, if “you win once and gain 2,000 yen, and after 15 rounds the total gain is 15,000 yen,” then the expected value is+1,000 yen per trade. This does not mean you win 1,000 yen every time. Including both wins and losses,the longer you run it, the more your capital tends to increase on average.
Many people mistakenly think, “If the win rate is high, you will win.” In reality, you can have a positive expected value even with a low win rate, and conversely, a negative expected value even with a high win rate—if you run it long enough, your capital will decrease. Expected value is a final judgment that includes win rate, profit per win, and loss per loss.
Moreover, only trades with positive expected value can be safely used with compounding, increasing position size, or automation—these “aggressive strategies” won’t break down because, with more repetitions, they converge as the numbers predict. Conversely, applying compounding to a negative-expected-value method will deplete capital faster than it grows.
Expected value can also be phrased as
“When you continue this action, will your future self have more capital?”
That question is answered by numbers.
A trade plan designed around the number of trades, durability, and growth, and expanding capital exactly as the numbers show.
This mindset is the foundation of reproducible trading.
Now, let’s break down the logic.
First, this is the parameter value we have previously posted in the community.
The six-month results of the White Tiger EA from July 1 to December 30.
Risk-reward 1:1
Lot 0.03 fixed
Number of trades 842 (449 wins, 393 losses)
Win rate 53.33%
Spread setting enabled (refer to the exchange values used by いくら).
Margin 100,000 → 350,000 (profit 250,000)
With an aggressive style, increasing Lot by 0.01 for every 50,000 margin is possible for further profit.
【For those who could identify an upward trend this year, we only used longs and obtained the following results.】
Number of trades 464 (267 wins, 197 losses)
Win rate 57.54%
Margin 100,000 → 400,000 (profit 300,000)
You might think 50,000 difference, but increasing Lot by 0.1 every 50,000 makes a substantial difference.
This marks the basic figures for White Tiger EA with risk-reward-focused settings.
Next, the win-rate-focused settings for White Tiger EA【Derivative】are called parameter values.
In the same period, win rate is about 95%
Using these two methods, we build the basis for reproducibility and construct the logic.
First,
step 1【Win-rate-focused setting to aim for a consecutive win streak】
Margin 10,000, lot 0.04 (fixed)
Aiming for 10–15 consecutive wins with a 95% win rate
Success rate about 60%
（In actual operation in December, performance was even better, but we calculated with small values to account for variance）
A 10-win streak doubles the capital.
From the average number of entries for White Tiger EA, roughly about 2 days
step2【Aim for 1:1 with risk-reward emphasis】
In step 1Margin is 2 times or 2.5 times the capital, then trades with risk-reward 1:1 to 1.5 are used to achieve returns from 100% to 150
Win rate calculated as the average of risk-reward settings is 55%
When trades end, your margin will be either 0 or 50,000.
If you compute this as expected value,
Risk-reward 1:4
Total win rate 33%
Expected value 65%
(If you put in an average of 10,000 per set, you would get about 16,500)
(If you put in an average of 100,000 per set, you would get about 165,000)
as an expected value.
Also, in Investment Navigator, from late November to December, we have posted the history, so please take a look if you like.
This has been a long write-up, but this logic is a hybrid logic born from a buyer’s question.
Thank you for reading to the end.
【White Tiger EA – do you pursue aggressive gains or stable wins?】
