Translation (keeping HTML format, no code block, single line): Publicizing the logic to aim from 10,000 yen to 50,000 yen in 3 days!
Have you ever heard the word expectancy (expected value)?
Exactly at the heart of trading is thisexpectancy.
Expectancy isthe foundation of a repeatable trade; if there is no result in past testing, there is no repeatability.
What exactly is such expectancy?
Expectancy is a numerical representation of the “future if you continue.”
The most important thing in trading is not the result of a single trade of “win” or “lose.” What you should really look at is,whether money increases or decreases when you repeatedly apply the same rules.
That single phrase is called “expectancy.”
Expectancy isthe average amount you gain (or lose) per trade; for example, if “you win once and gain 2,000 yen, and after 15 rounds you total gain 15,000 yen,” then the expectancy is＋1,000 yen per trade. This does not mean you win 1,000 yen every time. Among both winning and losing trades,the more you run it long, the more your funds will on average increase.
Many people mistakenly think, “if the win rate is high, you will win.” In reality, you can increase funds even with a low win rate if expectancy is positive, and conversely you can lose funds faster if expectancy is negative even with a high win rate. Expectancy is the final judgment that includes win rate, gain per win, and loss per loss.
Also, only trades with positive expectancy will not break with compounding, lot increases, or automation—these are “aggressive management” strategies. Because as the number of trades increases, the results converge toward the numbers. Conversely, applying compounding to a strategy with negative expectancy will lose funds faster than they grow.
Expectancy can be restated as
“When this action is continued, will my future self have more funds?”
That is the question answered by numbers.
Trade designed with counts, endurance, and growth in mind, growing funds exactly as the numbers predict.
This mindset forms the basis for reproducible trading
Now, let us unravel the logic that is central to this topic.
First, this is the parameter values we have previously published in the community,
the six-month results of Byakko EA [July 1st – December 30th]
Risk-reward 1:1
Lot 0.03 fixed
Number of trades 842 (449 wins, 393 losses)
Win rate 53.33%
Spread setting enabled (refers to the exchange values used by Ikura)
Margin 100,000 → 350,000 (profit 250,000)
On an aggressive style, margin increases of 0.01 Lot every 50,000 are possible for further profit.
【For those who could determine an uptrend this year, results were as follows by sticking to long only.】
Number of trades 464 (267 wins, 197 losses)
Win rate 57.54%
Margin 100,000 → 400,000 (profit 300,000)
It may seem like 50,000 difference, but increasing Lot by 0.1 every 50,000 makes a substantial difference.
This is the basic data of Byakko EA with a risk-reward focused setting.
Next is the win-rate focused setting for Byakko EA【Derivative】the parameter value for win rate
In the same period, win rate is about 95%
Using these two methods as the foundation for reproducibility, we build the logic.
First,
step 1【Target successive wins with win-rate-focused setting】
Margin 10,000, Lot 0.04 (fixed)
Aim for 10–15 consecutive wins with a 95% win rate
Success rate about 60%
（In actual operation in December, performance was even better, but to account for variance, calculated with small values）
A 10-win streak doubles your funds.
From Byakko EA’s average entry count, roughly about 2 days
sutep2【Target 1:1 with risk-reward focus】
In step 1Margin doubles or 2.5 times; then, with risk-reward 1:1 to 1.5, aim for profit per trade 100% to 150%.
Win rate is calculated using the average of the risk-reward settings at 55%
When the trade ends, your margin will be either 0 or 50,000.
If you calculate expectancy from this
Risk-Reward 1:4
Total win rate 33%
Expectation 65%
(If you put in 10,000 yen on average per set, you would get back 16,500 yen)
(If you put in 100,000 yen on average per set, you would get back 165,000 yen)
This is the expectancy.
This number is quite striking, to be honest. Please look up various expectancies online. This may be an upper bound, but given six months of data, it shouldn't fluctuate wildly.
Also, in Investor Navigator, from late November to December, we posted the history, so please have a look if you like.
I have written a long explanation, but this logic is a hybrid logic born from a purchaser’s question.
Thank you for reading to the end.
【Byakko EA: attack to win? or win steadily?】
