Publish the logic to aim from 10,000 yen to 50,000 yen in 3 days!
Have you ever heard the word “expected value”?
Indeed, the key to trading lies in thisexpected value.
Expected value is the foundation of a trade with reproducibility; anything that shows no results in past testing has no reproducibility.
So, what exactly is this expected value?
Expected value is a numeric representation of the future you would have if you continued.
The most important thing in trading is not the result of a single trade—win or lose. What you should really look at is,whether, by repeatedly applying the same rules, your capital eventually increases or decreases.
That is succinctly expressed as “expected value.”
Expected value isthe amount your average gains (or losses) per one trade. For example, if you win once and gain 2,000 yen, and after 15 turns you total 15,000 yen in gains, then the expected value is+1,000 yen per trade. This does not mean you win 1,000 yen every time. It means that, considering both wins and losses,the longer you trade, the more your capital on average increases.
Many people misunderstand this and think “if the win rate is high, you will win.” In reality, you can increase your capital even with a low win rate if the expected value is positive, and conversely, you can lose capital even with a high win rate if the expected value is negative. Expected value is the final judgment that includes win rate, profit per win, and loss per loss.
Moreover, only trades with a positive expected value will withstand aggressive methods like compounding, increasing lot sizes, or automation. This is because, as the number of trades increases, results converge as predicted. Conversely, applying compounding to a method with negative expected value will lose capital faster than it grows.
If you put it another way,
“When I continue this action, will my future self have more capital?”
That question is answered in numbers.
A trade designed to control count, durability, and growth in advance and to grow capital according to the numbers.
This mindset forms the foundation of reproducible trading.
Now, let’s unravel the main logic.
First, this is the parameter value that has long been shared in the community
for the Hakutori EA over six months [July 1 to December 30].
Risk-reward 1:1
Lot: fixed at 0.03
Number of trades: 842 (449 wins, 393 losses)
Win rate: 53.33%
Spread setting: enabled (referencing the exchange’s quote used by Iger)
Margin: 100,000 -> 350,000 (profit of 250,000)
With an aggressive style, increasing the Lot by 0.01 every 50,000 margin is possible for further profit.
【If you can determine this year’s uptrend, results were as follows with a long-only approach】
Number of trades: 464 (267 wins, 197 losses)
Win rate: 57.54%
Margin: 100,000 -> 400,000 (profit of 300,000)
You might think 50,000 difference, but raising the Lot by 0.1 every 50,000 margin makes a substantial difference.
These are the fundamental numbers for Hakutori EA with risk-reward emphasis.
Next, Hakutori EA’s win-rate focused setting is【Derivative】a parameter value based on win rate.
In the same period, the win rate is about 95%
Using these two methods, we build the foundation for reproducibility and construct the logic.
First,
step 1【Aiming for consecutive wins with win-rate emphasis】
Margin: 10,000, Lot 0.04 (fixed)
Aiming for 10–15 consecutive wins with a 95% win rate
Success rate about 60%
(In December’s actual operation, results were even better, but we use smaller values to account for swings)
Ten consecutive wins would double the amount.
According to Hakutori EA’s average number of entries, roughly about 2 days
step 2【Aiming for 1:1 risk/reward with a risk-managed approach】
In step 1Margin becomes 2 times or 2.5 times, then trade with risk-reward 1:1 to 1.5 and aim for 100% to 150% return.
Win rate is calculated using the average of the risk/reward settings at 55%
When trades end, the margin will be either 0 or 50,000.
If you compute this as expected value
Risk/reward 1:4
Total win rate 33%
Expected value 65%
(On average, if you invest 10,000 per set, you get 16,500)
(On average, if you invest 100,000 per set, you get 165,000)
This is the expected value.
I know it sounds bold for me to say this, but please compare various expected values online. It may be an overestimate, but these numbers are based on half a year’s data, so I don’t think they’ll swing wildly.
Also, I’ve posted the history on Investment Navigator from late November to December, so please take a look if you’re interested.
I’ve written this long, but this logic is a hybrid created from a buyer’s question.
Thank you for reading to the end.
【Hakutori EA - Will you go on the offensive to win or win steadily?】
