Publish the logic to aim from 10,000 to 50,000 yen in 3 days!
Have you ever heard the word “expectation value”?
What really matters in trading is thisexpectation value.
The expectation value is the foundation for trades with reproducibility; if past testing shows no results, there is no reproducibility.
What exactly is that expectation value?
Expectation value is a numerical representation of “the future if you continue.”
The most important thing in trading is not the result of each individual trade—win or lose. What you truly should look at is,whether, when you repeatedly apply the same rules, your capital ultimately increases or decreases.
That is summarized in one word as “expectation value.”
Expectation value isthe average amount by which your funds increase (or decrease) each time you make a trade. For example, if you win once and gain 2,000 yen, and after 15 rounds your total gain is 15,000 yen, then the expectation value is+1,000 yen per trade. This does not mean you win 1,000 yen every time. Including both winning and losing trades,the longer you run, the more your funds increase on average.
Many people mistake this as “higher win rate means you win.” In reality, you can grow funds with a positive expectation even if the win rate is low, and conversely you can lose funds faster if the expectation is negative even with a high win rate. Expectation value is the final judgment that includes win rate, profit per win, and loss per loss.
Moreover, only trades with a positive expectation value will withstand aggressive management like compounding, increasing position size, or automation. Because as the number of trades increases, the results converge to the numbers. Conversely, applying compounding to a method with negative expectation will cause funds to shrink faster than they grow.
Expectation value can be restated as
“When you continue this action, will the future you have more funds?”
That question is answered numerically.
A trade that designs the number of trials, durability, and growth in advance and increases funds according to the numbers.
This way of thinking forms the foundation of reproducible trading
Now, let’s unravel the core logic.
First, this is the parameter value we’ve previously shared in the community
for the White Tiger EA over six months【July 1–December 30】 results.
Risk-reward 1:1
Lot fixed at 0.03
Number of trades 842 (449 wins, 393 losses)
Win rate 53.33%
Spread setting enabled (refer to the exchange’s quoted price you are using)
Margin 100,000 → 350,000 (profit 250,000)
With an aggressive style, you could increase the lot by 0.01 every 50,000 of margin, enabling even greater profits.
【If you could identify an upward trend this year, the result for long positions only was as follows.】
Number of trades 464 (267 wins, 197 losses)
Win rate 57.54%
Margin 100,000 → 400,000 (profit 300,000)
You might think the 50,000 difference is small, but increasing the lot by 0.1 every 50,000 makes a substantial difference.
These are the baseline figures for the White Tiger EA under a risk-reward–weighted setting.
Next is the White Tiger EA’s win-rate–weighted setting【Derivative】the parameter results for win rate.
Over the same period, win rate is about 95%
By combining these two approaches, we build the foundation for reproducibility and construct the logic.
First,
step 1【Aiming for consecutive wins with a win-rate–weighted setting】
Margin 10,000, lot 0.04 (fixed)
Aiming for 10–15 consecutive wins with a 95% win rate
Success probability about 60%
（In actual operation in December, results were even better, but we calculate conservatively to account for fluctuations）
10 consecutive wins will double the capital.
From White Tiger EA’s average number of entries, about 2 days on average
step 2【Aiming for 1:1 reward–to–risk with the risk–reward–weighted setting】
In step 1,margin doubles or 2.5 times, then trades with risk–reward 1:1 to 1.5 when there is a return of 100% to 150%
Win rate is calculated as the average of the risk–reward settings, about 55%
When the trades finish, the margin will be either 0 or 50,000.
If you compute this as an expectation value,
Risk–reward 1:4
Total win rate 33%
Expectation value 65%
(If you put in an average 10,000 per set, you get back 16,500 on average)
(If you put in 100,000 per set on average, you get back 165,000)
This is the kind of expectation value.
I know it sounds bold to say, but these figures are quite striking. Please search online to compare what various expectation values look like. This might be a ceiling, but it’s based on six months of data, so I don’t expect it to swing wildly.
Also, on Investing Navigator, there are histories posted from late November to December, so please have a look if you’re interested.
I’ve written extensively, but this logic is a hybrid logic born from a buyer’s question.
Thank you for reading to the end.
【White Tiger EA: Attack to win or stay steady to win?】
