【Path to Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260104】
January 4th, Sunday.
Hello.
And,
Happy New Year.
I look forward to your continued support this year as well.
It’s a sunny Sunday.
The outside air is around 10°C,
so it will likely feel warm.
Now, as the year starts
this is my first memo.
Since the year end involved positions to tidy up,
USD/JPY slight yen appreciation occurred,
but there have been pullbacks afterward,
and 158.0 seems to be a ceiling above.
This year USD/JPY also seems likely to weaken the yen,
so I view Japan’s economy as unable to stop import-driven inflation.
Life will become tougher, doesn’t it?
Now, let’s confirm.
The numbers are at the close timing of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 13th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 23rd / 8
Weekly volatility: 75 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 41st / 36
4HC 4th cycle, 10th / 6LT
We regard it as such.
It seems preparations for dollar strength are almost ready.
We will watch for timing on a downside bias.
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20260104_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/O1ltf8xOtlg
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 17th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 16th / 10
Weekly volatility: 125 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 19th / 11
4HC 2nd cycle, 35th / 33
We regard it as such.
In the USD/JPY 4-hour chart,
we see it as a pullback of Elliott Wave 3.
If it continues to rise and set new highs,
we expect further upside.【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 13th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 23rd / 8LT
Weekly volatility: 128 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 41st / 36
4HC 4th cycle, 8th / 7
We regard it as such.
The starting point at the daily chart 1 is expected to break,
and we were looking for the top on the daily chart 2.
The downside movement may be active soon.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 18th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 23rd / 22
Weekly volatility: 100 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 19th / 12
4HC 2nd cycle, 32nd / 28
We regard it as such.
With dollar strength and yen weakness,
cross-yen pairs will be influenced by which momentum dominates.
Cross-yen looks difficult.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 18th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 22nd / 21
Weekly volatility: 118 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 41st / 34
4HC 4th cycle, 32nd / 7
We regard it as such.
If the downside momentum of GBP/USD is strong,
a downside bias becomes possible,
but as long as USD/JPY remains stagnant,
short selling and entries may be possible.
Which way it will move remains to be seen.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 10th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 20th / 20
Weekly volatility: 92 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 41st / 41
4HC 3rd cycle, 66th / 63
We regard it as such.
When US stocks fall,
AUD/USD tends to drop,
but if stock prices continue to rise,
AUD/USD will rise.
If USD/JPY also turns higher,
it will be a dollar-weak and yen-weak environment,
raising the outlook for AUD/JPY.
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20260104_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/O1ltf8xOtlg
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US10Y 4.195 +0.77%
DJI 48382 points +319
US500 +0.14%
WTI 57.005 dollars
Nikkei 225 50339 yen -187
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Let’s learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168) _2】
Registration URL：
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/rooms/33239
Noah Beetle
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