Public logic to target 10,000 to 50,000 yen in 3 days!
Have you ever heard the word “expected value”?
What really lies at the heart of trading is thisexpected value.
Expected value is the foundation of a trade with reproducibility; if a past test shows no results, there is no reproducibility.
What is this expected value?
Expected value is the future expressed in numbers, if you continue.
The most important thing in trading is not the result of a single trade of “win” or “lose.” What you should really look at is,whether, when you repeat the same rules many times, your capital ends up increasing or decreasing in the end.
That is succinctly what “expected value” represents.
Expected value is,the amount by which you will, on average, increase (or decrease) per trade. For example, if “you win once and gain 2,000 yen, and after 15 attempts you gain a total of 15,000 yen,” then the expected value is+1,000 yen per trade. This does not mean you will win 1,000 yen every time. Including both win and loss instances,the longer you cycle, the more the capital tends to increase on average.
Many people mistakenly think that “higher win rate means more wins.” In reality, even with a low win rate, if the expected value is positive, capital increases; conversely, a high win rate with negative expected value leads to capital shrinking the more you trade. Expected value is the final judgment that encompasses win rate, profit range, and loss range.
And only trades with positive expected value can endure aggressive management like compounding, lot-ups, or automation. This is because, the more you trade, the more the numbers converge as predicted. Conversely, applying compounding to a method with negative expected value causes capital to drop faster than the increase.
Expected value can be rephrased as
“If I continue this action, will my future self have more capital?”
A numerical answer to that question is given.
A trade designed with a plan for number of plays, endurance, and growth, and then growing capital according to the numbers.
This mindset is the foundation of reproducible trading.
Now, let’s unravel the logic of the main topic.
First, this is the parameter value we have previously shared in the community
for the White Tiger EA’s six-month results [July 1 – December 30].
Risk-reward 1:1
Lot 0.03 fixed
Trades 842 (449 wins, 393 losses)
Win rate 53.33%
Spread setting enabled (refer to the exchange values used by the provider)
Margin 100,000 → 350,000 (profit 250,000)
With a more aggressive style, you can increase Lot by 0.01 every 50,000 margin, enabling even greater profits.
【For those who judged this year as an upward trend, the results with a long-only approach were as follows.】
Trades 464 (267 wins, 197 losses)
Win rate 57.54%
Margin 100,000 → 400,000 (profit 300,000)
It might seem like a 50,000 difference, but increasing the Lot by 0.1 every 50,000 makes a significant difference.
These are the basic numbers for White Tiger EA with a risk-reward emphasis setting.
Next, the win-rate-focused setting of White Tiger EA【Derivation】is a parameter value with a win-rate.
The win rate in the same period is about 95%
Using these two methods, we build the foundation for reproducibility and construct the logic.
First,
step1【Win-rate-focused setting aiming for consecutive wins】
Margin 10,000, lot 0.04 (fixed)
Aim for 10–15 consecutive wins with a 95% win rate
Success rate about 60%
（In December’s live operation, performance was even better, but to account for variability we calculated with small values）
10 consecutive wins would double the result.
From White Tiger EA’s average entry count, roughly about 2 days
step2【Risk-reward emphasis aiming for 1:1 per trade】
in step1,Margin doubles or 2.5 times, then trades with risk-reward 1:1 to 1.5, for one trade, aiming for 100% to 150% return.
Win rate is calculated as the average of the risk-reward settings at 55%
At the end of trades, margin will be either 0 or 50,000.
If you calculate this as expected value,
Risk-reward 1:4
Total win rate 33%
Expected value 65%
(If you put in an average of 10,000 per set, you would get back 16,500)
(If you put in an average of 100,000 per set, you would get back 165,000)
This is the kind of expected value.
Honestly, this number is quite substantial. Please look up various expected values online. It may be optimistic, but these figures are based on six months, so I don’t think they will swing wildly.
Also, in Investment Navigator, we’ve posted history from late November to December, so please take a look if you like.
I wrote at length, but this logic is a hybrid logic born from a buyer’s question.
Thank you for reading to the end.
【White Tiger EA – Fighting to win or winning steadily?】
