It’s an uptrend, yet I lost again — The true nature of the trend we keep追い続けるトレンドの正体〔This part contains mixed Japanese; translating fully: "the trend we continue chasing"〕

There was a question I always had when I was a beginner.

What is a trend? (Philosophy)

Dow Theory?

Wave 1-3-5 of Elliott Wave Theory?

Golden cross of moving averages (MA)? Perfect order?

Bollinger Bands (BB) Band Walk (BW)?

I collected information scattered across the internet, tried to digest it, think about it, and verify it, but I kept getting stuck in a swamp.

Because I’m stuck in the swamp, some things worked and some didn’t.

I tried different strategies, won in backtesting, lost in real trades, found another method, won again in backtesting, then lost in real trades.

I repeated such things for years, and I even lost confidence in entries, which led me to create an EA (Expert Advisor).

Still, I couldn’t give up real trading, and I continued to test and think...

Having arrived at one answer, I want to share it mainly with intermediate traders, so I’m typing this on my keyboard.

The answer I reached is simple.

Trends are viewed with MA.

Ranges are viewed with Bollinger Bands.

Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory,

are all encompassed within this way of thinking.

I tried to have AI do it for me to save effort, and it ended up becoming an ultra-long 25,000-character piece, so I made it easier to read.

I’d like to focus on the thought patterns that beginners who find information online tend to fall into as I write.

Well then, here we go.