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Hello! This is Teshima from Gogojan.
“Why do 90% of traders fail?”
In the world of FX where 90% of traders are said to exit,
this time, as a year-end special free seminar,
we had the honor of a lecture byFX NOBILITY.
*This time, FX Nobility kindly provided a free gift for video viewers.
Please use the password within the video to obtain it.
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| Over 2,000 units sold in total |
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FX Nobility
After graduating from university, he quit his civil service job in one month and began the path of investment to become a noble from a worker.
Started automated trading in 2017.
With Gogojungle, he has over 2,000 units sold in total, and has achievements such as being featured on Radio Nikkei through official tie-ups with domestic securities firms, magazine serialization, and teaching at schools.
The encounter with trading
・ Quit his job on impulse and looked for ways to earn money on his own
・ Initially lost 500,000 yen in gambling-style trading
・ Studied from books, realized the importance of backtesting, started automated trading because manual testing was tedious
・ Debuted as a developer on Gogojan in 2017
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Thank you for lecturing today.
Who is the target audience for this lecture? |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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・ This year, I also ended up losing in trading
・ Even studying, I can’t grasp the tricks
・ First of all, I don’t know what to learn
・ Sign tools and EAs didn’t last
・ I don’t know what to believe
・ I want to start from zero again |
I see.
Many people struggle because they don’t know what to learn, so this is very helpful.
I look forward to it. |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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Truly successful traders are few
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| FX Nobility |
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This is a quick quiz.
This diagram shows the parts of an aircraft that were hit after it returned from a mission.
Looking at this image, which area should be reinforced? |
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| Where is it... I feel every area is important, perhaps the tail? |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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At first glance, you might think the attacked parts should be reinforced, but actually you should reinforce the parts that were not hit.
This is a plane that returned after being hit, so you could say the hit areas were not problematic.
What I want to say here is that judging only by surface results can lead to mistaken conclusions.
This is survivorship bias, but in trading it means behind every winning trader there are many losing traders.
The same applies to sign tools and EAs: behind winning tools there are also losing tools that fail to produce results. |
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Three reasons why you can't win in trading
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| FX Nobility |
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Next is an explanation of the reasons you can't win in trading.
First reason: "Trading is a negative-sum game." |
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| In a non-zero-sum, but negative-sum sense, does that mean the total of everyone's profit and loss is negative? |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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Yes, because there are revenues for the operators such as fees and spreads, continuing to trade aimlessly will lead to a loss.
Of course you will lose if you rely on luck, so it's important to find a method that can win. |
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| FX Nobility |
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| The second reason you can't win in trading is that, "there is no Holy Grail." |
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Holy Grail refers to a rule that guarantees victory, right?
There is no such sweet story. |
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| FX Nobility |
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It is impossible to predict market movements with 100% accuracy, so even if you find a winning method, it may or may not work in the future.
A common issue with EAs is a good backtest but poor real performance when run live.
Therefore, even a method that works needs adjustments to fit the current market conditions. |
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| FX Nobility |
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| The third reason you can't win is that "mental management" becomes unstable. |
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| Mental management is easy to say, but hard to put into practice. |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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That's right.
Even if you have a winning method, your mind can go off track and you won't win in trading.
Holding without cutting losses (salted away) is a classic mental defeat.
To maintain stable mental management, you need to create an environment that enforces rules.
To summarize the above, |
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Find a winning methodby testing it yourselfand identify it
Operate flexiblyaccording to the market
Mental managementand maintain it firmly |
| It seems difficult to master everything by oneself. |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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Yes, of course if you master all three, you become a professional trader.
Since it’s nearly impossible to master everything on your own, let's efficiently use tools and communities to get closer to that goal quickly. |
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Tips for trading improvement: find weapons and comrades
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| Using tools and communities effectively—what should you do specifically? |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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| FX Nobility |
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FirstTrading tools are like swords and shields—weapons.
With excellent weapons, you can win more through system rather than effort, but you must master how to use them.
I’ll discuss this in detail later.
Regarding communities, having comrades fighting alongside you brings you significantly closer to victory.
The market is a information war, so joining a community lets you gain a lot of information.
Additionally, having companions provides mental support, so your trading results stabilize.
In short,having both weapons and comrades creates an environment where you can win. |
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GogoJungle offers an environment with “open communities” and “communities only for people who purchased specific products.”
I hope many people find their comrades. |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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Five points for tool selection
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| FX Nobility |
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Before explaining tool selection, I’ll compare sign tools and EAs.
Both have pros and cons. |
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| FX Nobility |
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-Past results (backtesting)are published
- Trustworthyvendor and developerare involved
- Overview of logic andwhat kind of market it excels at (or not)is understood
-Communityoffers ongoing support
-Mentalaspects are addressed |
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| FX Nobility |
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| Having all five in one perfect tool may be rare, but it’s important to search patiently. |
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Thank you!
Today we discussed survivorship bias and the three reasons buyers can’t win in trading, and what tools and community to look for to overcome that.
Next time, I plan to ask about FX Nobility’s community and video courses. |
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| Gogo Nyan |
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| Session 1 |
| 【Year-end Special Free Seminar】Why 90% of traders can’t win? 【FX Nobility / Session 1】 |
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| Simplified discretion! A semi-discretionary system that enhances trading reproducibility |
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【Semi-Discretion EA】Izanami System
A novel two-pronged approach combining discretion and EA to buildup profits.
Password can be checked in the second session’s video
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