【Trail to Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20251228】

December 28th, Sunday.

Good morning.

This morning, due to radiative cooling
temperatures even in the South Kanto region were below freezing.

Since there is expected to be sun during the day
it seems temperatures may rise to the two-digit range.

Please take care of your health.


Now, let's take a look.
The numbers are taken at the closing timing of the daily chart.

　　
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 12th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 22nd / 8
Weekly volatility: 101 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 37th / 36
4HC 3rd cycle, 74th / 64

We interpret it as such.

1.1808 is likely the top,
and the dollar may strengthen moving forward.

Similar to GBP/USD,
we need to monitor this pair.

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20251228 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/6_S8-LlD9hA
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 15th / 10
Weekly volatility: 215 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 15th / 11
4HC 2nd cycle, 11th / 10

We interpret it as such.

Currently on the 4-hour chart
we see the pullback of the rising Elliott Wave 3.

Going forward, if it breaks above 158.0,
the yen may continue to weaken.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 12th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 22nd / 8LT
Weekly volatility: 163 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 37th / 36
4HC 3rd cycle, 74th / 64

We interpret it as such.

We see 1.3534 as the top.
If a down Dow forms,
the downside may continue until the starting point is broken.


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 17th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 22nd / 22
Weekly volatility: 171 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 15th / 12
4HC 2nd cycle, 8th / 3

We interpret it as such.

As a cross-yen,
there is a high possibility of being caught between USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.


One of them will drive the other with stronger movement.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 17th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 21st / 21
Weekly volatility: 154 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 37th / 34
4HC 4th cycle, 8th / 7

We interpret it as such.

If USD/JPY rises are limited,
GBP/USD may be pulled lower.

If weekly volatility does not widen,
this pair may not be suitable for trading.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 9th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 19th / 19
Weekly volatility: 127 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 37th / 37
4HC 3rd cycle, 42nd / 41

We interpret it as such.

If US stocks fall,
the US dollar rises,
AUD/USD falls,
and a sharp decline occurs
without being influenced by USD/JPY rise,
it would form a bearish candle.

Movement depends on USD/JPY and AUD/USD.

****************************
20251228 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/6_S8-LlD9hA
*****************************
　

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US10Y 4.132 -0.07%
DJI 48710 dollars -20
US500 -0.02%
WTI 56.655 dollars
Nikkei 225 50,750 yen +342
　　
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Let us learn together.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872


 
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