MMA Weekly Report Nikkei 225 By Raymond Merriman Dec.29 2025

1. Review

The Nikkei 225 average closed up 1,243 points from the previous week at 50,750. The week's low was 49,982 on Monday the 22nd, and the week's high was 50,941 on Friday the 26th. The closing price for the week was above the upper resistance line, indicating a bullish outlook. Furthermore, this closing price exceeded the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) in four out of five weeks. Therefore, the underlying trend has been upgraded again from “neutral” to an “upward trend.”

2. Cycles

In “Forecast 2026,” the long-term market cycle duration for the Nikkei 225 has slightly changed from 17 years to 19 years. There is no change to the starting point of October 28, 2008, at 6,994, but where this 19-year cycle bottoms, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be a focal point in 2026. However, the view that the current market is composed of a 4-year cycle remains unchanged, and the future development of the long-term cycle will be influenced by the near-term PC (usually 12–20 weeks). Also unchanged is the current focus on the lows to watch: August 5, 2024, at 31,156 and April 7, 2025, at 30,792. Both lows were part of a PC bottom formed around November 28, 2024, at 37,801, bracketed by 16 weeks and 19 weeks. The issue is how to view the PC after that.

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