February 28, 2019 08:20: Dollar-yen trade strategy [From Mr. Satoshi Emori's newsletter]
From the investment newsletter “Tetsu Emori’s Real Trading Strategy” by Tetsu Emori provided by GogoJungle, here is a small excerpt from this morning’s delivery. This time, please take a look at the dollar/yen trading strategy.
The USD/JPY remains short. It declines but then recovers, moving in step with U.S. interest rate movements. Because there is no new material, market participants seem to be watching the moves in interest rates. The range is between 111.00 and 110.50, and we are waiting for a clear breakout of this range. A breakout will require not only interest rate factors but also stock prices and political catalysts. In the current environment, there seems to be potential for both upside and downside. However, the bias is toward the downside. We will also watch to see if there is a sharp downward swing due to some shock. In particular, with U.S. stocks approaching record highs, a downturn could be accompanied by a larger move. If that happens, funds may shift into bonds, causing yields to fall and dollar selling to intensify.
From “Tetsu Emori’s Real Trading Strategy” (Tetsu Emori)quoted.
Due to a lack of catalysts, market participants are focusing on the movement of interest rates, says Emori. On the political front, the U.S.–North Korea summit began yesterday, and there are then U.S.–China trade talks and Japan–U.S. trade negotiations on the horizon, so more catalysts are expected to emerge. (Editorial staff)
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