【OWARI-style Environmental Awareness】Accuracy verification using Abusan Signal 2

This time "Abusan Signal 2" used for environmental awareness and its accuracy, we introduce OWARI's recent market-based verification results.

By grounding the conclusions in actual data, you can make judgments based on evidence rather than intuition.

Since a lot of comments are expected, we apologize, but questions within this article or requests for more detailed explanations cannot be accepted. Thank you for your understanding.

Overview of the Verification

• Target: H4 chart
• Method: Use only the most recent signals of each currency pair where "Abusan Signal 2 (in the same direction as TF3)"
• Measurement rule:
  From the opening price of the candle where Signal 2 appeared, measure, and if the closing price 5 candles later follows the signal direction, mark “〇”; otherwise “×”.
  ※ Example: even if an up signal appears and briefly goes up, if it turns down on the 5th candle, it is “×”.

Verification Conditions

This time, conditions were divided into the following 3 patterns.

① Simple Condition

• TF2 ignored
• Capture all signals in the same direction as TF3 Lv1

② Accuracy-Focused Condition

• Exclude TF3 near ±80 or in a pegged state
• In the candle where the signal appeared, if within the past 5 candles there wasa full-direction LV2 reverse signal, also exclude
• However, if TF3 is just after peaking at -100 and the direction-change signal follows in the same direction, do not exclude
• Exclude if too far from the top or bottom lines

③ Line-Distance-Ignoring Condition

• Based on condition ②, do not exclude even if far from the top or bottom lines

Partial Verification Results (Example)

September 3, four-hour chart up to just after midnightPlease compare.

• USDJPY × (too far from the line)
• GBPUSD 〇
• AUDUSD 〇 (too far from the line)
• NZDUSD 〇
• USDCHF × (TF3 pegged)
• EURGBP × (TF3 pegged)
• XAUUSD 〇 (TF3 pegged)
• US500 × (TF3 + 80; too far from the line)
• BTCUSD × (reverse direction present; TF3 pegged)
  … and tested across 40 currency pairs.

Overall Results

• ① Simple Condition: 25 wins, 15 losses, win rate 62.5%
• ② Accuracy-Focused Condition: 11 wins, 0 losses, win rate 100%
• ③ Line-Distance-Ignoring Condition: 15 wins, 3 losses, win rate 83%

Summary

In a verification targeting 40 most recent currency pairs,the accuracy-focused rule in Condition ② showed the most stable result (100% win rate).

Rather than using Signal 2 as-is, you should consider

• the position of TF3 (±80 or pegged)
• presence of opposite-direction signals
• distance from the lines

Combining these conditions clearly increases the accuracy of environmental recognition.

Furthermore, based on this environmental recognition,searching for entry triggers on lower timeframescould lead to better trading results.