【Path to Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20251221】
December 21st, Sunday.
Hello.
The sky is overcast and
it looks like rain at times.
The air feels heavy,
so I’d like to be grateful for rain that isn’t cold.
Now, on Friday
there was a big move in the yen after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference.
The yen weakened considerably.
If rate hikes lead to currency depreciation,
the Japanese yen will be quite fragile.
There are traders who use the term gravity for yen weakness,
so it’s natural for it to rise.
Although the BOJ’s response has often felt belated,
in the Lost 30 Years,
they may be cleaning up after Shirakawa and Kuroda.
Ueda is admirable,
but right now the balance of power of the yen is difficult to deny.
It’s a tough situation for the yen.
Now, let’s verify.
This is the number of bars at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly chart: 12th bar
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 21st bar / 8
Weekly volatility: 101 pips
Daily chart: HPC 2, 33rd bar / 30
4HC 3rd cycle, 50th bar / 31
I interpret it this way.
Weekly volatility is small, but
the second HPC (half primary cycle) top at 1.18
is considered to be a top.
From now on, I’m looking with a bearish bias.
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20251221_FX_Market_Environment_Video_Commentary
https://youtu.be/EeGWg85jwJ8
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 16th bar
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 14th bar / 10
Weekly volatility: 336 pips
Daily chart: HPC 2, 11th bar / 11
4HC 1st cycle, 64th bar / 64
I interpret it this way.
If the daily chart scenario is confirmed,
the pattern may not cause a break of the starting point even in HPC.
The upside risk looks high from here.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly chart: 12th bar
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 21st bar / 8 LT
Weekly volatility: 144 pips
Daily chart: HPC 2, 31st bar / 30
4HC 3rd cycle, 50th bar / 30
I interpret it this way.
In HPC 1, starting-point break occurs,
which could pull the dollar crosses,
and since the weekly chart already broke the starting point,
I’m looking with a bearish bias.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly chart: 17th bar
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 21st bar / 21
Weekly volatility: 318 pips
Daily chart: 3rd cycle, 11th bar / 11
4HC 1st cycle, 64th bar / 64
I interpret it this way.
If USD/JPY trades in a range and EUR/USD falls,
EUR/JPY will be bearish.
From now on, the key point is whether USD/JPY’s ascent can pause.
That’s my view.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly chart: 17th bar
Weekly chart: 3rd cycle, 20th bar / 20
Weekly volatility: 425 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 33rd bar / 33
4HC 3rd cycle, 64th bar / 64
I interpret it this way.
If GBP/USD begins to fall,
USD/JPY may range,
GBP/JPY could move downward.
Since it’s 4HC3,
the daily close direction is likely to proceed lower.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly chart: 9th bar
Weekly chart: 2nd cycle, 18th bar / 18
Weekly volatility: 199 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 33rd bar / 33 or
Daily chart: 2nd cycle, 46th bar / 38
4HC 4th or 3rd or 1st, 18th bar / 17
I interpret it this way.
AUD will likely depend on US stocks.
If US stocks rise and risk-on occurs,
AUD/USD will rise,
and AUD/JPY may rise as well.
However, conversely,
if the dollar strengthens and US stocks fall,
AUD/USD may fall,
and AUD/JPY could fall together.
A scenario where stocks fall and USD/JPY also falls.
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20251221_FX_Market_Environment_Video_Commentary
https://youtu.be/EeGWg85jwJ8
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US10Y 4.149 +0.61%
DJI 48,134 USD +183
US500 +1.04%
WTI 56.305 USD
Nikkei 225 49,507 yen +505
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Let’s learn together.
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https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-kumi (168)_2】
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