MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Average Stock Price By Raymond Merriman Dec.22 2025

1. Review

Last week the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 49,507, down 1,329 from the previous week. The week's high was 50,432 on Monday, the 15th. The week's low was 48,643 on Thursday, the 18th. The closing price for the week was below the weekly downside support line, so the outlook was bearish. Furthermore, this closing price also fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in four weeks. Therefore, the underlying trend has downgraded from an “uptrend” to “neutral.”

2. Cycles

In the December release of "Forecast 2026," the long-term market cycle timing for the Nikkei Stock Average has been slightly adjusted. There is no change to the starting point of 6,994 on October 28, 2008, but where this cycle bottomed, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be a focus in 2026. However, there is no change to the view that the current market is structured around a four-year cycle, and the development of future long-term cycles will depend on the near-term movement (typically 12–20 weeks) of the PC—this point remains unchanged.

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