【Dream Path to FX Major Currencies Market Environment Recognition & Memo 20251207】
December 7th, Sunday.
Hello.
The weather today looks clear.
Forecast is 2°C to 15°C,
so daytime should be warm.
By the way, last week's trades
rewarded us for not overreaching, not pushing too hard.
Results have been improving.
Please check the details in the trade history.
Trade History
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/mypage/display/navi/article/105593
Now, let's review.
These are the numbers at the close timing of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly 12th
Weekly 2nd cycle 19th/8
Weekly volatility 92 pips
Daily HPC 2nd, 23rd/22
4HC 2nd cycle, 62nd/52
We view it as such.
It seems to have peaked soon.
Overlapping cycle close
will likely see bearish candles in the future.
If this bearish candle rush continues,
the second half of the HPC (Half Primary Cycle)
could imply further USD strength.
If weekly volatility increases, the opportunities could widen,
perhaps.
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20251207_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/k0gPq21BFHY
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly 16th
Weekly 3rd cycle 12th/10
Weekly volatility 183 pips
Daily HPC 1st 58th/47 or
Daily HPC 2nd 1st
4HC 1st cycle 4th/3
We view it as such.
Finally, the daily chart start seems confirmed
If bearish candles appear after Monday,
the scenario would collapse, but
for now we expect some upward movement,
to a certain extent.
Even Governor Ueda’s remarks
would be tough if it’s a full retracement.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly 12th
Weekly 2nd cycle 19th/8LT
Weekly volatility 205 pips
Daily HPC 2nd 23rd/22
4HC 2nd cycle 71st/64
We view it as such.
Headwinds are likely peaking soon.
Highs are getting lower,
lows are getting lower.
However, the 4-hour pullback lows
haven’t broken below, so
it would be prudent to confirm before selling/short entries.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly 17th
Weekly 3rd cycle 19th/17
Weekly volatility 136 pips
Daily 2nd cycle 47th/36 or
Daily 3rd cycle 1st
4HC 1st or 5th, 4th
We view it as such.
Similar to USD/JPY,
we expect 4HC to close.
If it drops sharply in the future,
we would need to redraw the scenario, but
could USD/JPY follow?
We think so.
If EUR/USD moves downward vigorously
and volatility increases,
it may engulf that momentum.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly 17th
Weekly 3rd cycle 18th/18
Weekly volatility 216 pips
HPC 2nd cycle 23rd/22
4HC 3rd cycle 4th/3
We view it as such.
As a cross-yen with Europe, it is affected by USD/JPY.
GBP/USD has risen significantly,
but it seems to have hit a plateau or headwind.
If the USD strengthens,
GBP/JPY may move downward.
We expect USD/JPY’s rise to be limited?
That is our assumption.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly 9th
Weekly 2nd cycle 16th/16
Weekly volatility 167 pips
HPC 2nd cycle 23rd/23 or
Daily 2nd cycle 36th/36
4HC 2nd or 3rd, 50th/49
We view it as such.
Unlike other cross-yen pairs, this is Oceania region.
The influence of U.S. stocks is large,
and AUD/USD rose in December week 1.
As a result,
AUD/JPY also rose and is staying near highs.
Technically, 4HC closing timing is near,
so bearish candles are expected, but
being a lagging currency, the exact timing is uncertain.
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20251207_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/k0gPq21BFHY
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US10Y 4.139 +0.95%
DJI 47,954 points +104
US500 +0.22%
WTI 59.715
Nikkei 225 50,446 yen -582
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20251207_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/k0gPq21BFHY
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Let’s learn together.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872
【Iroha-gumi (168) 2】
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