Earn 60 pips in USD/JPY | A day when the yen was extremely strong, why the 15-minute retracement sell signals worked smoothly
This time a +60 pips trade in USD/JPY.
Risk/reward isabout 3.0 and was a favorable figure.
Following the orders of the Tenkan Eye Indicator × Order Book, I adhered to a strategy of “taking only what can be reliably taken.”
Today’s market was a day whenthe yen was very strong.
While the price movement direction was fairly clear,
if you entered at the wrong level you could be whipsawed and knocked out.
■ Trade Result Summary
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Currency pair: USD/JPY
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Pips gained: +60 pips
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Timeframe: 15-minute chart
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Trade direction: pullback selling
■ Pre-entry Environment Recognition (Fundamental)
◆ Why was the yen strong today
In short,
it was a day with multiple factors supporting yen buying, I believe.
The main background is as follows.
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Bank of Japan(BOJ) related speculation
In the market, the view that the BOJ will continue normalizing monetary policy remains ongoing.
Although nothing decisive was announced,
the premise of “quantitative easing continuing indefinitely” is gradually receding. -
Dollar selling and yen buying with a view to U.S.-Japan rate differentials
In the U.S. side, discussions toward rate cuts are increasingly anticipated,
creating a market environment where there is a tendency to anticipate a narrowing of the rate gapand a dollar long unwind is more likely to occur.
※This is, of course,a market psychology and position-based speculation. -
Bias toward yen selling positions
As a reaction to the recent yen weakness,
it was also a timing where a movement to buy back the yen could occur.
With these overlapping,
there was a day when the market shared the view that the yen was very strong from Tokyo to London.
That is the fundamental summary.
■ Chart and Entry Point
The trading principle remained consistent throughout:
“Don’t look for buys, only aim for pullback selling.”.
Looking at the 15-minute chart,
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There is a clear downward bias
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In response to that, short-term retracements appear, but the upside does not continue
This was the structure.
◆ Tenkan Eye Indicator insights
When viewing the 15-minute chart with the Tenkan Eye Indicator,
There is a clear downward bias
In response, short-term retracements occur, but the upside does not persist
This structure was evident.
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Overbought feeling at the retracement phase
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A sign of reverting to the trend direction (down)
was relatively clear,
it was an environment where it was easy to judge “this side will be sold”.
Fundamentally yen strength,
technically pullback selling.
Having direction and timing align contributed to entry justification.
■ Why I could let it run to take profit
The reason for capping at 60 pips lies in the Order Book.
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Overall yen was strong, but there were intraday whips
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Price movement was relatively straightforward, with little indecision
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Pre-decided profit target and not chasing greed mid-flight
In particular this time,
we prioritized the judgment of “already enough has been taken” over “it might still extend.”
■ Risk Management Concept
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Assumed stop loss width: about 1/3 of the profit target
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Assumed take profit width: around 60 pips in advance
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Risk/reward: about 3.0
Rather than going big on a single trade,
I focus on whether repeating this structure yields overall stability.
■ Image of Compounding
Example: funds 1,000,000 yen, risk 3%
- Lot size: 1.5
- Allowable loss: 30,000 yen
- Profit: 90,000 yen
■ A word on the current market (present progress)
Continuing,
a market where the yen tends to play the leadpersists.
For USD/JPY,
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On a 15-minute basis, whether the pullback selling structure holds
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Don’t chase aggressively; monitor only the clear retrace
That is the stance.
This time I aimed for an early take profit, but judging from the Order Book, there is still potential for another leg lower.
■ Summary
What I felt again from this trade is
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Rather than betting on a currency pair,
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honestly accepting which currencies are strong/weak today
■ Finally
For this kind of pullback selling decision,
I use the Tenkan Eye Indicator as a supplementary tool.
If you are interested in the mechanism and mindset,
please take a look as a reference.