【Trajectory toDream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition and Memo_20251130】

【Dream-to-Track_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Note_and Memo_20251130】


November 30, Sunday.

Hello.

Today is sunny.
Clear skies in the southern Kanto area.

Mornings and evenings are cold,
but daytime is expected to be warm and sunny.

Outdoor activities can be anticipated.

Well, after Thanksgiving has ended
the big players are fading from the market.

Spreads are widening, so
trading requires careful attention.

Anomalies-wise
December is expected to see yen appreciation, but
it depends on Ueda’s statements.

From Monday morning,
it looks like Ueda’s statements can be confirmed.


Now, let’s check.
These are the counts at the closing of the daily chart.

　　
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 18th / 8
Weekly volatility: 111 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 18th / 7
4HC 2nd cycle, 32nd / 21

as interpreted.

In the 2nd of 4HC, it seems about to top out.
I expect movement toward USD strength?
as I see it.

****************************
20251130_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/nYBe3iZcEUY
*****************************

　　
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 15th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 11th / 10
Weekly volatility: 153 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 16th / 10 or
Daily: HPC 1st, 53rd / 47
4HC 1st cycle, 96th / 59 or
4HC 2nd cycle, 32nd / 7LT or
4HC 2nd cycle, 17th / 4

as interpreted.

There are multiple scenarios,
and even elimination methods cannot determine
which is correct at present.

We need to carefully watch future movements
to determine whether a tradable currency pair exists.
and assess it.

Will the dollar rise and yen strengthen?
Focusing on that.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 11th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 18th / 8LT
Weekly volatility: 155 pips
Daily: HPC 2nd, 18th / 17
4HC 2nd cycle, 41st / 31

as interpreted.

In Half Primary Cycle (HPC) 1,
the starting point is considered broken.

In HPC 2,
we expect a large bearish candle, but
since weekly volatility is small,
it is questionable whether it will be tradable.



【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 18th / 17
Weekly volatility: 153 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 42nd / 36 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 6th / 1
4HC 4th or 1st, 32nd / 27

as interpreted.

Is the daily chart already closed?
Or is it about to close?
This is uncertain.

USD/JPY movement may influence the outlook.



【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 17th / 17
Weekly volatility: 245 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 18th / 18
4HC 1st cycle, 32nd / 27

as interpreted.

If GBP/USD declines
and USD/JPY declines
the synergy appears.

I’d like to view it with a bearish bias.
Until the chart moves, I am not holding positions.



【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 8th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 15th / 14
Weekly volatility: 202 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 18th / 12 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 31st / 25
4HC 2nd or 3rd, 20th / 19

as interpreted.

AUD/USD is hitting a downtrend line.


Even if USD/JPY ranges
AUD/USD could plunge,
AUD/JPY may be affected as well.

****************************
20251130_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/nYBe3iZcEUY
*****************************
　

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US10Y 4.017 +0.63%
DJI 47,716 dollars +289
US500 +0.31%
WTI 59.395 dollars
Nikkei 225 50,253 yen +88
　　
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