【FX Distortion Catcher View】XAUUSD 15-minute Chart Three-Currency Analysis Memo (Tool: MT5 Indicator "FX Distortion Catcher | FX Distortion Catcher | Tri-Parity Analysis Indicator")

As of 6:30 AM on November 21, 2025, XAUUSD 15-minute chart, this is a note reflecting from the perspective of the three-currency parity (XAUUSD｜AUDUSD｜XAUAUD).

1. Overall chart trend

In the attached chart,

late night on the 17th saw a sharp drop

after that, from the 18th to the 19th, a gradual rebound

on the 19th evening it formed a higher wick and stalled, and on the 20th the range was directionless.

FX Distortion CatcherOscillator (Z-score) and contribution labels indicate that

BO (BreakOut) signal: lights up at the initiation of a strong trend

RE (Re-Entry) signal: lights up at pullbacks/rests

and the roles are clearly separated,
“distortion (bias) → mean reversion”movement was visually easy to follow, in my view.

2. What can be read from the Statistics Dashboard

(Top right: XAUUSD｜AUDUSD｜XAUAUD / 15-minute)

▼BREAK OUT Side

WIN LONG: 33.3% (N=15) / PF: 0.67

WIN SHORT: 27.3% (N=11) / PF: 0.79

The sample is still small, and the win rate and PF are both below 1.0,so using only BO to push through is, for this period,somewhat heavy as an impression.

There were moments where the trend initially moved strongly,but due to false signals or reversals, total gains were little or near break-even overall.

▼ RE-ENTRY Side

WIN LONG: 80.0% (N=10) / PF: 10.17

WIN SHORT: 42.9% (N=14) / PF: 2.62

These numbers are quite contrasting, especially RE LONG is outstanding.

Win rate: 80%

PF (total profit ÷ total loss) over 10 exceeds 10

The sample size is still limited at N=10, but at least for this period and this setting,

RE Long buying on pullbacks was far more effective than BO

to say the least.

RE Short also has PF 2.62, which is not bad, and looks like a viable area for mean-reversion selling on pullbacks.

3. How to use this (my personal notes)

For XAUUSD M15,
- instead of追蹤ing a strong trend early with BO,
- it is currently advantageous to pick up pullbacks with RE

In particular RE Long is statistically quite strong, so
- BO is for “breakout detection only”
- actual entries prioritize RE

and I would like to continue validating whether this division of roles is possible.

4. Cautions

This article is intended as a observation memo based on
“XAUUSD 15-minute chart for a specific period × these parameters”.

As the timeframe and market environment change, the numbers will change, so this can be a part of your own validation material, and I hope it serves as a prompt to examine “When does three-currency parity distortion work?”