Looking at BlackPanther's stop-loss rate

The EA "trend stream" BlackPanther has been in a steadily favorable run, but just recently, in a trade on 1/13, all 14 positions hit stop loss (-50 pips per position). In 2017 it started with 32 consecutive wins, but with this 14 straight losses, as of 1/14 it is in the red.BlackPanther”



To get to the conclusion, this run happens to occur normally,and it is still far from a problemIf someone started operating from that day, it would be extremely disappointing, but whether the start of operation is favorable or not at launch cannot be adjusted by logic. It can only be attributed to luck.

In 2016, only one month was negative out of 12 months, but in the past there were years with three negative months. Conversely, there were years with no monthly losses.



So why is it within an acceptable range? We will check by calculating the stop-loss rate from past data.

Up to 2015 it was backtesting, and 2016 used real data.



As an example of 2016, which had a good return with an annual yield over 50%, the year saw462 lossesin total.

Of those, the ones that hit stop loss were109. Stop losses accounted for 23.59% of all losses.

Also, on a monthly average, there were 38.5 losses,and on average 9 stop-loss events per month.

In the past decade,you should be prepared for an average of 83.5 stop losses per year according to the data.

Before operating an EA, people tend to focus on favorable data, but by pre-checking negative data in advance, you’ll be mentally prepared for unfavorable events after starting operation, so I strongly recommend doing so.

However, these are purely past data.

Statistically, this is not highly probable, but this year it is possible to exceed past worst values, and conversely, there is also a possibility that stop losses do not occur this year. Let's proceed with operation with a proper understanding of this.